US Housing Market Update The pace of house price gains is set to slow We expect the pace of house price gains to slow later this year and decelerate further in 2014. This will not signal the end of the US housing recovery, but a new phase in which house price growth is... 24th June 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Household sector sensitive to higher long-term rates The recent improvement in the global economic outlook and changing prospects for US monetary policy in particular have prompted us to revise our global bond yield forecasts moderately higher... 24th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly The Fed’s tapering and rate hike timetable The markets may have overreacted a bit to the details of the Fed’s QE3 tapering timetable and the prospect of the first interest rate hike taking place in two years’ time. Nonetheless, the growing... 24th June 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (May) & Retail Sales (Apr.) With the official core inflation measure unchanged at a worryingly low 1.1% in May, the output gap would appear to be larger than the Bank of Canada is willing to admit. If, as we expect, economic... 21st June 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Households' showing signs of borrowing fatigue Although our seasonally-adjusted measure of the household debt-to-income ratio nudged higher in the first quarter of this year, the trend appears to have stabilised. This suggests that there is even... 20th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Higher rates unlikely to derail recovery We doubt that the rapid rise in long-term interest rates in recent weeks will derail the economic recovery. For a start, rates are still at unusually low levels. Moreover, the primary reason why the... 20th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (May 13) The number of existing home sales broke decisively above the five million mark in May, while the supply of existing homes for sale continued to creep upwards. 20th June 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Monetary policy to remain highly accommodative Governor Stephen Poloz's debut public speech, which focused on the fragile global recovery and lack of business confidence, touched on our long-held concerns about Canada's economic recovery and why... 19th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed likely to begin QE taper in September In most advanced western economies the supply of labour is likely to be boosted by a rise in labour market participation during the coming year or two. This should help to prevent wage inflation... 19th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (May) Thanks to some unfavourable base effects, the annual rate of headline CPI inflation rebounded to 1.4% in May, from 1.1%, even though prices increased by only 0.1% m/m last month specifically... 18th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (May 13) The rise in housing starts in May was driven by a surge in multi-family starts and went some way to reversing April’s big drop. Despite some headwinds, starts are on track to increase further over the... 18th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) Broad money growth has remained stable since late last year, with our measure of the M3 aggregate expanding by 6.2% over the 12 months to May. 17th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Labour market less sensitive to falls in S&L govt. investment The sharp drop in State and Local (S&L) government investment has had a smaller adverse impact on the unemployment rate than might have been expected. The ongoing fiscal consolidation may therefore... 17th June 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Higher unit labour costs are a false alarm The rise in the annual growth rate of unit labour costs has more to do with declining labour productivity, rather than any acceleration in the growth rate of labour compensation. Looking ahead, we... 17th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed responding to improving economic outlook It now appears that GDP growth will slow to around 1.8% in the second quarter, but we should see a pick-up in the second half of this year. The slowdown is probably a delayed reaction to the tax hikes... 17th June 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Apr.) With most attention focused on the housing sector, the plight of the manufacturing sector has gone largely unnoticed. But manufacturing sales volumes have been trending lower for more than a year now... 14th June 2013 · 1 min read
