US Economics Update Small businesses faring better The recent improvement in the sentiment among small businesses is an encouraging sign that the overall economy is becoming fundamentally stronger, although changes to taxes and regulations will... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Spike in mortgage rates not derailing recovery The benchmark 30-year mortgage rate has risen from 3.6% two months ago to 4.7% last week. The effect on remortgaging volumes has been considerable – applications for remortgaging have halved in the... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch New Governor may take bold step forward Despite stronger economic data, there are good reasons to expect a more supportive policy statement next week. Although the new Governor Stephen Poloz has said nothing recently that indicates the Bank... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Home building unlikely to defy gravity for long The recent condo-surge which propelled housing starts to levels above demographic requirements in the second quarter is not convincing evidence that the housing slowdown is over. More timely... 9th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Is this now a “job-full” recovery? The economy has recently been enjoying something of a “job-full” recovery as employment has been rising at a faster rate than GDP. Activity will probably catch up later this year, but in the near-term... 9th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business intentions soften further The latest Business Outlook Survey suggests that businesses do not expect any material improvement in future sales growth and, as a result, are scaling back their investment plans. Accordingly... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Foreign buyers peripheral to housing recovery A couple of years ago, a lot was being made of the potential for foreign buyers to come to the rescue of the housing market. We were dubious of these claims at the time, and a recent NAR survey seems... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Limited economic impact from higher borrowing costs It now looks as though annualised GDP growth in the second quarter could be as low as 1.0%. But growth will still accelerate later in the year. It is also encouraging that, so far at least, activity... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Exports and business investment lacking punch The Bank of Canada has set its economic growth hopes on a revival in exports and business investment. Unfortunately, exports and business investment appear to have lost much needed momentum in the... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jun. 13) Any doubts (or hopes!) that the Fed wouldn’t follow through on its plan to taper QE3 later this year in response to some of the recent weaker activity data were dealt a major blow by the 195,000... 5th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jun.) The fact that employment was unchanged in June, after posting a record-matching 95,000 gain in May, is an encouraging sign that economic conditions did not worsen too much in the second quarter... 5th July 2013 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Economy decelerates in second quarter After being propelled by a rebound in energy exports earlier this year, economic growth appears to have decelerated heading into the second quarter. Moderate export growth, cautious business... 4th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (May) & ADP Survey (Jun.) The sharp widening in the international trade deficit in May suggests that second-quarter annualised GDP growth may be even weaker than the 1.5% we have been expecting. At the same time, the... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jun.) Mortgage applications for refinancing tumbled in the face of higher mortgage interest rates in June. But applications for home purchase, which are a better indicator of underlying housing demand, were... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update The tide is turning for State & local governments Recent evidence on employment and construction spending has supported our view that a rebound in spending by State and local governments this year will offset some of the drag on GDP growth from a... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the Treasury market braced for future Fed tightening? We think the US federal funds rate will have been raised to about 4% by the end of 2017. However, based on a decomposition of the Treasury yield curve, it looks like the bond market is more or less... 2nd July 2013 · 1 min read
