US Housing Market Update Will mortgage demand recover this year? Mortgage demand is struggling to shake off the impact of last year’s jump in mortgage interest rates. But providing that the wider economic and labour market recovery remain on track, we see no reason... 14th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jan.) January’s industrial production data join a growing list of economic releases affected by the unusually bad weather. Given that the weather has been just as severe in February, the lost output may not... 14th February 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Bad US weather driving commodity prices in unexpected ways Adverse weather is affecting US commodity prices in some obvious and some more surprising ways. As would be expected, the prices of energy and some agricultural commodities have surged. But less... 14th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Making sense of the weather effect Our best guess is that the severe weather has played a key role in the apparent deterioration in the incoming economic data for December and January. With much of the country currently digging out... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Pending home sales tumble again The recovery in housing market activity has taken a knock. Existing home sales edged up in December, but the pending home sales index recorded a worrying slump. New home sales fell substantially in... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) Some of the weakness in retail sales in January was probably due to the bad weather. Nonetheless, it looks as though GDP growth in both the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of this... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jan.) January's pick-up in house price inflation isn't that surprising when you consider last year's home buying rush that was triggered by fears of rising mortgage rates. Now that home sales are dropping... 12th February 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Federal government will need every bit of extra fiscal room It seems almost certain now that the Federal government will meet its timetable for eliminating the budget deficit before fiscal year 2015-16, which will give it the wiggle room it needed to deliver... 11th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Yellen indicates that the Fed will continue with QE taper The two key takeaways from new Fed Chair Janet Yellen's first congressional testimony on monetary policy is that neither the recent drop off in the pace of employment growth nor the turmoil in... 11th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Indicators point to labour market strength The latest improvements in small business hiring and labour market turnover indicate that the fall in the unemployment rate may be a more accurate gauge of labour market slack than the Fed currently... 11th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update How will the Fed's forward guidance evolve? With the unemployment rate falling to 6.6% in January, putting it very close to the Fed's threshold level of 6.5%, new Chair Janet Yellen could use her congressional testimony this week to signal how... 10th February 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Improvement in export growth to be modest The breakdown of Canada's sluggish export performance reveals that some of the weakness in the second half of last year should prove temporary. The persistent weakness in some industries such as autos... 10th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Five challenges for the new Fed Chair In her semi-annual monetary policy testimonies to Congress this week, we expect new Fed Chair Janet Yellen to emphasise that the weak tone of some of the incoming data and the turmoil in emerging... 10th February 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jan.) The modest rebound in employment in January, which was not enough to reverse completely the slump last December, suggests that bad weather isn't the only factor depressing labour market conditions... 7th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) The disappointing 113,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in January cannot be blamed on the weather but, nonetheless, with the unemployment rate continuing to edge lower, to only 6.6% last month, we... 7th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Rising rents to boost core inflation Low vacancy rates, falling unemployment and faster earnings growth will drive the rents inflation higher over the next year or two. In addition to signs that wage growth is poised to accelerate, this... 6th February 2014 · 1 min read
