Canada Economics Update Stronger wages and salaries growth unlikely to last The recent non-farm payroll figures suggest that wages and salaries growth continued to accelerate in the fourth quarter, which should have helped support stronger consumption growth. 31st January 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership and Vacancy Rates (Q4 13) The slight decline in the homeownership rate at the end of last year is a reminder that, even though the housing market is recovering, the share of the population who own their home probably has... 31st January 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Payrolls rebound as weather effects fade Our econometric model suggests that the sharp slowdown in jobs growth in December, which resulted in payroll employment rising by just 74,000, was due to temporary factors that are unlikely to have... 31st January 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q4 1st Estimate) When we take into account the near three-week Federal government shutdown at the start of the quarter, the 3.2% annualised gain in fourth-quarter GDP growth is pretty impressive, particularly since it... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed continues gradual QE taper Despite last minute suggestions from some commentators that the emerging markets wobble could prompt a delay, the Fed opted to continue the gradual winding down of its asset purchases today, reducing... 29th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Jan.) In spite of the unseasonably severe winter weather, the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence rose to 80.7 in January, from 77.5. This probably reflects the continued improvement in labour... 28th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Nov. 13) Monthly house price inflation has been in the 0.7%-1.2% range since mid-2013, and November was no exception. But the number of locations in the Case-Shiller 20-City index which are seeing a moderation... 28th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Dec 13.) The 1.0% m/m decline in durable goods orders was mainly due to a drop back in the notoriously volatile commercial aircraft component. More generally, there is some evidence that the growth rate of... 28th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Dec.13) The large decline in new home sales in December was probably driven by last month’s unseasonably severe winter weather. Sales activity in January is likely to be weak for similar reasons. But we... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar due for a temporary bounce The Canadian dollar's sharp decline over the past few weeks seems a tad overdone and we wouldn't be surprised if it enjoyed a modest rebound over the coming month or so. As the incoming economic data... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly A little help from overseas The rebound in US export growth late last year can be linked directly to strengthening demand in both China and the euro-zone. Given that growth in China is now slowing and that the dollar is... 27th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Why is homebuilding so low in States with rapidly rising prices? The subdued level of homebuilding in Nevada, Arizona, California and Florida is primarily a legacy of the glut of cheap, distressed homes which flooded the market during the recession and crowded out... 24th January 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Dec.) December's increase in underlying inflation was partly due to base year effects, which the Bank of Canada knows will prove temporary. With timely indicators still pointing to ultra low inflation, the... 24th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Dec.13) It’s too early to conclude that the small increase in existing home sales in December marks the end of the weaker period for sales. But the rise looks consistent with a fading of the negative impact... 23rd January 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update 8 reasons why wage growth is poised to take off The current rates of wage and price inflation may be unusually low, but we are becoming increasingly concerned that the dwindling slack in the labour market will trigger a rise in wage inflation this... 23rd January 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) The much stronger than expected rebound in retail sales volumes in November supports our view that the economy grew by at least 0.2% m/m in that month. For the fourth quarter overall, we still stand... 23rd January 2014 · 1 min read
