Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Dec.) The further uptick in house price inflation to a 16-month high of 3.8% in December, from 3.4%, is consistent with the earlier pick-up in existing home sales seen over the summer. If the recent descent... 14th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) Although the modest 0.2% m/m gain in December's retail sales suggests that retailers had a disappointing holiday season, the truth is that underlying spending was strong. Indeed, over the fourth... 14th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update America will further reduce its reliance on oil imports America will import fewer barrels of oil both this year and next but, while this will narrow the trade deficit a bit, it won’t provide a major boost to the economy. 14th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Fed will eventually have to hike rates more rapidly The markets are happy to take the Fed at its word that it won't begin to raise rates until mid-2015 and will tighten only gradually after that, but we fear that rising wage and price inflation will... 13th January 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Businesses still remain in cautious mood The Bank of Canada's latest business outlook survey shows some welcome improvement in investment and hiring intentions but, despite the Canadian dollar's recent decline and stronger sales expectations... 13th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Economy will avoid a deep freeze The unusually cold winter weather may take some of the heat out of the economic recovery, but the adverse impact will be small for two reasons. First, the hit to activity will be cushioned by... 13th January 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing affordability threatened by rising mortgage rates We expect mortgage rates to rise further this year, posing a threat to housing affordability for prospective home buyers. With average house prices already far too high relative to household incomes... 13th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Sharp rise in housing starts The strong 22.7% m/m increase in housing starts in November was an encouraging sign that the rise in mortgage interest rates is not a permanent setback for the homebuilding recovery. This gain echoed... 10th January 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Dec.) December's shocking decline in employment and hours worked probably had more to do with severe winter storms rather than the broader state of the economy. Accordingly, we suspect that this large... 10th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) We suspect that the unexpectedly weak 74,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in December is largely explained by the unseasonably severe winter weather last month. Under those circumstances, we still expect... 10th January 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Low inflation may soon prompt easing bias Inflation has remained at the bottom of the Bank of Canada's 1% to 3% target range for over a year now, highlighting why the Governor is in no hurry to raise interest rates anytime soon. (See Chart.)... 9th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Dec.13) The drop in mortgage applications in December reflects the increase in mortgage interest rates over the past two months. But if the wider economy continues to pick up speed during 2014 as we expect... 8th January 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Nov.) November's flat export and import trade figures suggest that the economy lost some momentum mid-way through the fourth quarter of last year. Given the fairly strong start to that quarter, however, we... 7th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Nov.) The trade deficit unexpectedly shrank to a four-year low of $34.3bn in November, from $39.3bn, suggesting that fourth-quarter GDP growth could turn out to be above 3.0% annualised. 7th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Nov.13) It’s too early to tell if the marginal dip in the annual pace of house price inflation in November marks the start of the slowdown in price gains that we are expecting. But we are confident that... 7th January 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market conditions still improving gradually Our econometric model points to a healthy 200,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in December, although we suspect that the unemployment rate was probably unchanged at 7.0%. 6th January 2014 · 1 min read
