US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jan 14.) The strong rise in new home sales in January means that the recovery in housing market activity looks to be back on track. There is considerable scope for new home sales to rise further in 2014. 26th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Feb.) The drop in the Conference Board consumer confidence index to 78.1 in February, from 79.4, was probably weather-related, with a massive storm hitting the eastern seaboard during the sample period. Now... 25th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller Home Prices (Q4) House prices rose by a strong 11.4% during 2013 as a whole. However, prices are a lagging indicator of the health of the housing market. The more recent weakness of home sales will weigh on price... 25th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Falling unemployment rate forces Fed into rethink With the unemployment rate falling to 6.6% in January, leaving it only trivially above the 6.5% threshold, the Fed will soon need to update its forward guidance on when it might begin to raise the fed... 24th February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will a shift in Fed policy send profits into a tailspin? A rise in borrowing costs triggered by less accommodative monetary policy is likely to have an adverse effect on the profits of increasingly-indebted US companies. But we doubt margins will collapse. 24th February 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Fourth-quarter economic performance won't be sustained Canada's economic performance over the final quarter of last year was probably the best in more than two years. The breakdown, however, is likely to show that the economy is still heavily dependent on... 24th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is the housing recovery crumbling? Most of the recent weakness in housing activity is due to the unusually bad weather rather than the lagged effects of last year’s rise in mortgage rates. While higher mortgage rates have clearly taken... 24th February 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) & Retail Sales (Dec.) The pick-up in core inflation to 1.4% in January, from 1.3%, reflects both base-year effects and possibly some early impact from the weaker Canadian dollar. The latter is something that we anticipate... 21st February 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Delinquencies (Q4 13) Among the recent weather-hit housing market activity data, the further improvement in the mortgage delinquency and foreclosure picture is a timely reminder that the fundamentals of the housing market... 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan. 14) It’s possible that the unusually bad weather is masking a strengthening in underlying consumer price pressure that will only become clear in a few months’ time. Despite the fall to 1.6% in January... 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Producer Prices (Jan.) The revamp of the producer prices data has made the release much more comprehensive, but it hasn’t changed the bigger picture. There is not much sign of any near-term inflationary pressure. 19th February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Outlook for US equities is brighter than for bonds We think US equities are set to fare better than bonds in the coming years. The outperformance is likely to be less than the historical average. But we still think it could be quite substantial. 19th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jan. 14) The sharp fall in housing starts in January looks like further payback following November’s surge, combined with weather-related disruption. So while 2014 has got off to an unpromising beginning, we... 19th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) Broad money growth appears to have stabilised, with our measure of the M3 aggregate rebounding slightly to 4.6% in January, from 4.4%. (See Chart below.) Elsewhere, the slowdown in the growth rate of... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing starts likely to fall further this year Although housing starts have declined over the past two years, the current six-month annualised trend of 191,456 units is arguably still above demographic requirements. With weakening home sales and... 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Dec.) The discouraging decline in December's manufacturing sales volumes and downward revision to the previous month dampens our view that the improving outlook overseas may finally be filtering through to... 14th February 2014 · 1 min read
