Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Dec.) The surprisingly large increase in December's trade deficit provides further evidence supporting our view that Canada's economy isn't benefitting fully from the steadily improving US economy. 6th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Dec.) The rebound in the monthly trade deficit to $38.7bn in December, from $34.6bn, means that fourth-quarter GDP growth will likely be revised down slightly to about 2.9% annualised in the second estimate... 6th February 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Canadian dollar still too high to energise economy The recent slide in the Canadian dollar doesn't greatly improve Canada's economic prospects. The sharp decline looks overdone in our mind and we wouldn't be surprised to see a rebound, at least a... 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Economy more unbalanced than before Although economic growth improved over the second half of last year, averaging an estimated 3.0% annualised, there is still no sign of a much-needed rebalancing towards exports and business investment... 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jan.14) The rise in mortgage applications for home purchase in January means that applications have repeated the pattern of falling in one month and rising in the next for six months now. The outlook for home... 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Federal budget improvement may not last The decline in the Federal budget deficit over the past few years has been impressive, but the longer-term budget challenges linked principally to the aging of the population have still to be resolved... 4th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Is the growing market share of ARMs cause for concern? The growing take up of adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) does not look like a long-term threat to the stability of the housing market. Even after recent gains, the size of the ARM market is small. And... 4th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Don't panic The sharp drop in January's ISM manufacturing index has led to some speculation that the US recovery might be coming off the rails, particularly as it followed an unexpectedly weak gain in payroll... 4th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Dec.13) The final CoreLogic house price reading of 2013 showed that house prices rose by 11% last year. But the year-on-year rate of gains softened in the closing months of the year and is likely to weaken... 4th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update New PPI data won't predict CPI inflation any better The revamp of the producer prices data will provide a more comprehensive measure of pipeline price pressures, but it may not give us a greater insight into where consumer price inflation is heading. 4th February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Mortgage demand plummets The Fed's latest Senior Loan Officer Survey indicates that the jump in borrowing costs last year is still undermining demand for residential mortgages. The more recent drop back in mortgage rates... 3rd February 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan.) The unexpected plunge in the ISM manufacturing index to an eight-month low of 51.3 in January, from 56.5, appears to have more to do with the unseasonably severe winter weather, than a major slowdown... 3rd February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is it right to blame Fed tapering for the EM sell-off? Many equity investors will be happy to see the back of January, but several lessons are worth underlining. In short, the gradual scaling back of the Fed’s asset purchases alone still seems unlikely to... 3rd February 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed right to ignore emerging market turmoil The Fed is only concerned with the US economy's performance and the recent bout of emerging market turmoil poses little threat to that. It is worth remembering that despite the currency crises which... 3rd February 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada can't ignore emerging market turmoil The recent turmoil in emerging markets is a knock to Canada's trade and commodity dependent economy that the Bank of Canada can't ignore. Although it has only had a modest negative impact on Canada's... 3rd February 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Nov.) November's steady GDP growth of 0.2% m/m supports our view that the economy grew by an annualised 3.0% in the final quarter of last year. 31st January 2014 · 1 min read
