US Economics Weekly Delta and Ida add to headwinds With employment increasing by less than 250,000 last month and other incoming data disappointing, the recovery appears to be losing momentum even faster than our already-below consensus forecasts... 3rd September 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP shrinks, opinion polls shift The unexpected contraction in second-quarter GDP comes at a bad time for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, with support for the ruling Liberal Party falling further this week and projections now pointing... 3rd September 2021 · 5 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Aug.) The well-below consensus 235,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in August suggests that the Delta variant is beginning to weigh on the economy, with leisure & hospitality employment unchanged on the month... 3rd September 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response US International Trade (Jul.) The narrowing in the trade deficit to $70.1bn in July, from a revised $73.2bn, suggests that the drag on GDP growth from net trade in recent quarters will be partly reversed in the third. We’ll be... 2nd September 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Jul.) The trade surplus was lower than expected in July, although expectations probably shifted following the preliminary GDP estimate released earlier this week, which showed a surprise fall in GDP in July... 2nd September 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Jul.) Job growth showed no sign of slowing in July, with gains in the leisure & hospitality sector continuing to drive the recovery. This benefitted Boston, Washington D.C. and New York City significantly... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The latest data show that growth in the main monetary aggregates is slowing even before the Fed starts tapering its monthly asset purchases, although it remains strong by historic standards. We’ll be... 1st September 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Last week’s sharp fall in US commercial crude stocks is at odds with many of the underlying indicators. In any case, stocks seem likely to rise in the weeks ahead as reports suggest that refinery... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Aug.) The details of the small rise in the headline ISM manufacturing index in August to 59.9, from 59.5, suggest demand remains strong and that, while some of the recent price pressures have faded, supply... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to keep policy unchanged as recovery stalls The unexpected contraction in second-quarter GDP means the Bank of Canada is likely to wait until October before reducing the pace of its asset purchases again, rather than pushing ahead with tapering... 1st September 2021 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Aug.) With the share of households seeing now as a good time to buy at a record low, home purchase mortgage applications fell for the fifth consecutive month in August, leaving them down 25% from January’s... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation & the outlook for E-Z & US Yields While we think that 10-year government bond yields in both the US and the euro-zone will rise over the next few years, we expect increases in yields to be much smaller in the euro-zone given the... 31st August 2021 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jun) House price growth surged above 18% y/y in June, setting record highs on both the Case-Shiller and FHFA measures. However, demand has fallen back since the start of the year, and the timelier Common... 31st August 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q2) The unexpected fall in second-quarter GDP means that there is little chance the Bank of Canada will press on with its tapering plans next week, particularly as the preliminary estimate implies GDP... 31st August 2021 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update What the S&P 500’s valuation may mean for future returns Although the US stock market’s valuation is nearly as high now as it was at the height of dot com mania, we don’t expect the return from it to be as bad in the next decade as it was in the 2000s. 31st August 2021 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rally reverses on dovish Powell; payrolls coming up The US dollar gave back much of its gains from last week, as appetite for risk recovered and Chair Powell’s much-anticipated speech today provided some relatively dovish guidance on the path for Fed... 27th August 2021 · 9 mins read
