Commodities Weekly Dollar depreciation unlikely to last There was a dramatic turnaround in the fortunes of commodities prices this week, with across-the-board gains as risk appetite picked up and the US dollar eased back. Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, was... 27th August 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Delta spreads; consumption slows; Powell stalls The Delta-variant linked surge in coronavirus cases continues and has now spread well beyond just one or two southern states. Moreover, even in those southern states, particularly Florida, new case... 27th August 2021 · 7 mins read
US Commercial Property Update New supply won’t have major impact on industrial rental growth Despite a higher construction pipeline for distribution warehouses, we think that a high share of pre-let space, coupled with strong demand, means vacancy will only be 20bps higher over the next few... 27th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing proposals unlikely to amount to much Housing has emerged as one of the key issues in the federal election campaign but, even if some of the latest proposals are implemented, we doubt that they would have much impact on house prices. 27th August 2021 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Update How vulnerable are house prices to a rise in rates? Our forecast for mortgage rates to rise to 4.2% by end-2023 will help slow house price gains, but we don’t think that increase will be enough to cause an outright fall in values. And with homes not... 26th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What the S&P 500’s valuation may mean for future returns Although the US stock market’s valuation is nearly as high now as it was at the height of dot com mania, we don’t expect the return from it to be as bad in the next decade as it was in the 2000s. 26th August 2021 · 6 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Continued strong payroll gains in August We expect a 750,000 gain in payrolls in August which, although slightly weaker than the gains seen in June and July, would be enough to push the unemployment rate down to 5.1% and would probably count... 26th August 2021 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Uncertainties surround QE taper timing and pace With the Delta-linked resurgence in coronavirus infections adding to the downside risks to economic growth and officials still split on exactly what qualifies as “substantial further progress” toward... 26th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Is the Bank right to dismiss CPI-trim and CPI-median? We are not convinced by the Bank of Canada’s recent claim that CPI-trim and CPI-median are currently overstating underlying inflation, although their elevated level compared to CPI-common is mainly... 26th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude oil stocks fell again last week and implied gasoline demand rose, in broadly positive news for oil prices. For now, US consumers appear to be shrugging off the spread of the Delta variant of... 25th August 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jul.) The 0.1% m/m fall in durable goods orders in July was entirely due to a plunge in the volatile commercial aircraft component. The underlying details suggest that growth in business equipment... 25th August 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update New fiscal stimulus likely to be underwhelming The bipartisan infrastructure deal, which could be passed by end-September, would provide no meaningful boost to the economy over the next couple of years. The $3.5trn spending package that Democrats... 25th August 2021 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jul.) After a run of declines, new home sales eked out a small gain in July. The recent weakness in sales data likely reflects homebuilders restricting sales as they try to catch-up with the surge in demand... 24th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Fourth wave could delay recovery GDP is on track to return to its pre-pandemic level this month but, with the number of coronavirus infections now picking up, there is a growing risk that the recoveries in some sectors go into... 24th August 2021 · 8 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jul) Existing home sales surprised on the upside in July, rising for the second consecutive month. But with demand easing and inventory at record lows, we doubt this is the start of a resurgence. Instead... 23rd August 2021 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Property valuations stabilise in Q2 Following a sharp deterioration in the previous quarter, property valuations held steady in Q2. But while changes so far in Q3 point to only a slight worsening in valuations, we expect Treasury yields... 23rd August 2021 · 6 mins read
