US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) Although the headline data show bank loans stagnant, that is mostly due to the forgiveness of Paycheck Protection Program loans and mortgage securitisations, with the broader evidence pointing to an... 5th August 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Jun.) The widening in the trade deficit to $75.7bn in June, from $71.0bn in May, is unlikely to be sustained now that consumer goods demand appears to have peaked and surveys show demand for US exports... 5th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (June) The merchandise trade position returned to surplus in June thanks to a massive 8.7% m/m surge in exports, which suggests that second-quarter GDP growth was even stronger than the 2.5% annualised we... 5th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities US biofuel mandates unlikely to boost corn prices A decision by the Biden administration to increase US biofuel mandates in 2021 and 2022 has the potential to be a gamechanger for corn demand. However, we think that this is unlikely, which is one... 5th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks unexpectedly increased last week as net imports rose, but we suspect that inventories will fall back soon as demand for oil products, such as gasoline, continues to rise. 4th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update How do our key calls compare with the consensus? Our expectations for GDP growth and inflation this year are close to the consensus but, beyond then, we think both will be weaker than most expect. This is likely to feed through to a fall in the... 4th August 2021 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update What would it take to generate a much stronger US dollar? We think that the upside risks to our US dollar view have increased. On a trade-weighted basis, we forecast a ~4% rise from its current level by the end of 2022; this Update considers what factors... 4th August 2021 · 5 mins read
US Housing Mortgage Applications (Jul.) The recent decline in mortgage rates buoyed refinancing activity in July, but didn’t prevent another month of declining home purchase activity. While market conditions are tight, there are still... 4th August 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Increase in build-for-rent won’t derail SF rent growth Surging demand for single-family homes has revived institutional investor interest in the single-family rental (SFR) market. With few homes available to buy, interest in build-for-rent (BFR)... 3rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics ISM Manufacturing Index (Jul.) The further small decline in the ISM manufacturing index in July probably has more to do with the continued drag from supply constraints than waning demand. The details did at least suggest that... 2nd August 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Bank will take comfort in latest inflation data Although inflation remained above the Bank of Canada’s 1% to 3% target range in June, the details of the release seem to support the Bank’s view that the high rate of inflation is due to transitory... 30th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (May) The monthly data suggest that GDP expanded by 2.5% annualised in the second quarter, despite the lockdowns in April and May, and the likely 0.7% m/m gain in June will provide a strong hand-over to the... 30th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Re-opening should more than offset wildfire disruption The wildfires in British Columbia appear to have been more disruptive than we first thought, but GDP should still rise this month thanks to the easing of the coronavirus restrictions. The volume of... 29th July 2021 · 9 mins read
US Economics Payroll growth to remain elevated With labour supply continuing to lag the recovery in demand, we estimate that growth in non-farm payrolls slowed to 650,000 in July. 29th July 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q2) Improvements in occupier demand boosted market sentiment in Q2. With over half of surveyors perceiving the property cycle to be in an upturn, prospects for H2 performance look solid. But while we... 29th July 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics GDP (Q2) The relatively disappointing 6.5% annualised gain in second-quarter GDP, which was well below the consensus at 8.5%, included unexpected declines in government spending and residential investment, and... 29th July 2021 · 2 mins read
