US Commercial Property When will office vacancy peak in San Francisco? Our forecasts, which cover landlord-held space, point to San Francisco vacancy peaking in 2025 at over 24%. Broker data, which also incorporates sublease vacancy, suggests much of that adjustment has... 21st July 2021 · 3 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed not yet ready to conclude tapering discussion A few regional Fed Presidents are pushing for the Fed to begin tapering its Treasury and MBS purchases sooner rather than later. But with Chair Jerome Powell recently arguing that the recovery is... 21st July 2021 · 8 mins read
US Economics Delta variant adds to consumption headwinds Although 60% of American adults are now fully vaccinated, the uptick in coronavirus infections linked to the Delta variant has been accompanied by a slight rebound in fears over the spread of the... 20th July 2021 · 9 mins read
US Housing Housing Starts (Jun.) Single-family housing starts rose by 6.3% m/m in June. Despite this, even after the sharp decline in lumber prices in recent weeks there are still signs that supply shortages are holding back... 20th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Teranet House Prices (Jun.) House price inflation accelerated to 16% y/y in June but, with the sales-to-new listing ratio falling in recent months, price inflation will peak in the second half of the year. 20th July 2021 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Lower Treasury yield forecasts support property pricing We have pulled back our expectations for Treasury yield rises this year and, to a lesser extent, next year. At the margin, this is positive for real estate pricing as it means that the property to... 16th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank’s new GDP forecasts too optimistic The Bank of Canada expects GDP to move above its pre-pandemic trend in 2023 but, given the potential for oil prices and residential investment to decline, we think its forecasts will prove too... 16th July 2021 · 5 mins read
US Economics Democrats kick-start budget; Powell future uncertain The Democrats’ $3.5trn budget proposal is only the first step in what could be a protracted negotiation to a final bill, which will be roughly fiscally neutral. Meanwhile, another dovish showing from... 16th July 2021 · 5 mins read
US Economics Retail Sales (June) The 0.6% m/m gain in retail sales in June was a little stronger than we were expecting, but upward revisions to the decline in May take the gloss off that somewhat and, besides, with consumer prices... 16th July 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Home sales to ease even as mortgage rates stay low Even as mortgage rates have remained low, housing market activity has dropped back as booming house prices, tight credit conditions and a lack of inventory have put off buyers. We expect that dynamic... 15th July 2021 · 17 mins read
US Economics Industrial Production (Jun) The modest 0.4% m/m increase in industrial production in June was due to a weather-related spike in utilities demand and a recovery in mining output, with manufacturing output dragged down by another... 15th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Consumption to drive recovery The lifting of restrictions and ongoing policy support should translate into a sustained period of above-potential GDP growth, driven by consumption and business investment. We expect GDP growth of 6... 15th July 2021 · 19 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks fell for the eighth week in a row, and domestic production is now showing signs of life. This may add to the pressure on OPEC+ to relax output cuts more quickly and avoid a... 14th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Bank tapers its asset purchases again The Bank of Canada’s decision to continue tapering its asset purchases today came as little surprise and we continue to expect the Bank to bring the QE program to a close by the end of this year. With... 14th July 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Will booming house prices translate into rents? The recent surge in house price growth to record highs does not automatically mean rental growth is also set to take off. But a strong recovery in rental demand as cities reopen and households make... 14th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Manufacturing Sales (May) Manufacturing sales fell again in May as the global supply shortages continued to take their toll. While those shortages should ease in the second half of the year, the rebound in production is set to... 14th July 2021 · 2 mins read
