US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Aug.) An improvement in inventory helped new home sales rise for the second consecutive month in August. Admittedly, overall housing demand has eased in recent months and a rise in mortgage rates argues... 24th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Election solidifies larger role for government The federal election confirms that the government will continue to play a larger role in the economy than before the pandemic, which is one reason to think that inflation will be higher in the coming... 24th September 2021 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Debt ceiling could still delay QE taper This week the focus was on the Fed, which appears intent on announcing a QE taper at the next FOMC meeting in early November. Next week the focus will shift to fiscal policy, with the Democrat’s plans... 24th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Limited risks to DM property from Evergrande The Evergrande crisis has made waves in financial markets this week. But, while the developed property markets we cover may see some short-term upheaval, we think the impacts outside of China are... 23rd September 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) Retail sales fell in July, but that was mainly because consumers switched back to spending on services as the coronavirus restrictions were eased. In any case, the preliminary estimate suggests that... 23rd September 2021 · 3 mins read
CE Spotlight Will higher inflation force central banks to raise rates? We think a sustained period of inflation in the region of 3-4% over the coming years could be dealt with relatively easily by central banks. But if inflation were to rise much further than this... 23rd September 2021 · 33 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks have continued to fall as refinery activity has so far recovered faster than crude output following Hurricane Ida. And with demand already broadly back to pre-pandemic levels, US crude... 22nd September 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Aug.) Existing home sales dropped back in August as booming house prices and a lack of affordable inventory shut out first-time buyers. A small recovery in home purchase mortgage demand suggests sales may... 22nd September 2021 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Data provide mixed signals on Delta impact The latest data provide mixed signals on the impact that the Delta variant is having on the economy. The high frequency indicators for high contact services suggest that activity levelled out in... 21st September 2021 · 9 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Aug.) A boom in multifamily construction has supported housing starts in recent months, with multifamily building permits rising to a 31-year high. On the single-family side, homebuilders have reported... 21st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Modest policy loosening to follow election There has been almost no change in the distribution of seats in Parliament following the election, but it seems likely that the minority Liberal government will press on with a modest loosening of... 21st September 2021 · 3 mins read
CE Spotlight Are the structural headwinds to inflation fading? The past few decades have been marked by a combination of sustained disinflationary forces, but the picture in more recent years, and particularly since the pandemic, looks more mixed. Globalisation... 20th September 2021 · 20 mins read
US Housing Market Update Stimulus cheques help explain house price rebound After beginning to slow at the turn of the year, house price growth has since got a second wind. We suspect the key driver behind that resurgence was the arrival of the third round of stimulus cheques... 17th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Inflation & the outlook for bonds in the US, UK & E-Z While we expect the yields of long-dated sovereign bonds to increase further across developed markets over the next two years, we think they will rise by more in the US than in the euro-zone and the... 17th September 2021 · 4 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Japan’s stock market may not go from strength to strength We don’t expect the recent surge in Japan’s stock market to last, and think it will make much smaller gains over the next couple of years. 17th September 2021 · 8 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Three reasons why Chicago will emerge a winner Chicago’s office market will not escape the gloomy outlook caused by the shift to remote working. But we expect the low level of rents, the small share of jobs in the information sector, and a... 17th September 2021 · 3 mins read
