Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jul.) The stronger than expected showing in July’s GDP, which reflects volatility in oil sands output, suggests that the risks to the Bank of Canada’s Q3 GDP growth forecast of 1.5% annualised lie to the... 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) The annual growth rate of our M3 money measure accelerated to a five-month high of 5.6% in August, from 5.2%. The growth rates of the narrower M1 and M2 monetary aggregates are even higher. 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Sep.) The increase in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence to 103.0 in September, from 101.3 suggests that lower gasoline prices trumped the fading impact from the financial market turmoil a... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Jul.) By posting a 0.5% gain during July, the national Case-Shiller index of house prices is beginning to move into line with other measures which have shown far stronger house price gains in recent months... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Impact of strong dollar to fade next year External deflationary pressure from the strong dollar and lower commodity prices will continue to keep both headline and core inflation unusually low in the shortterm . The strong dollar's downward... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly A mild case of Dutch disease The recent speech by Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz on commodity prices and Canada’s economy attempted, albeit unconvincingly, to play down the significance of the slump in commodity prices to... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fiscal uncertainty back to the top of the agenda This week it will be uncertainty over fiscal policy and a possible Federal government shutdown that dominates the headlines. Congress needs to pass a continuing spending resolution by the end of... 25th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Domestic strength counters external weakness GDP growth is now on track for a solid 2.5% gain in 2015. We had previously anticipated that growth would accelerate to nearer 3.0% in 2016 but, given the weakness of global demand and the dollar’s... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Aug.) New home sales are finally building momentum, and are up by over 18% since June. While low levels of inventory suggest the pace of growth will slow, early evidence that mortgage applications for house... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth to slow… but that’s okay Our econometric model points to a 200,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in September. We expect the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 5.1%. With the job openings rate comfortably at a record high... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Aug.) The 2.0% m/m decline in durable goods orders in August was a lot better than we were expecting, but principally because the drop back in the volatile transportation category was smaller than... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) The modest 0.2% m/m gain in retail sales volumes in July, together with the slight downward revised figures for June, suggest that the pace of consumer spending growth slowed in the third quarter... 23rd September 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Aug.) After three months of gains, subdued mortgage lending and low inventory levels meant existing home sales fell back in August. Those factors will weigh on sales in the short term, but as lending... 21st September 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Dollar debt not the reason for the Fed's caution The latest US financial accounts show that the Fed’s reluctance to raise interest rates from near-zero is not because the central bank fears that it could trigger a debt crisis, either in the US or in... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy not out of the woods Although the majority of forecasters have downgraded their forecasts substantially for GDP growth this year, most remain overly optimistic about the underlying strength in the economy. The economy... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed fooling itself if it thinks uncertainty will ever clear The more the Fed procrastinates, the more we get the feeling that officials are fooling themselves into thinking that, if they only just wait a little longer, all the uncertainty will clear up and... 18th September 2015 · 1 min read
