US Rapid Response

ISM Services Index (Aug. 2024)

Although the ISM services index was essentially unchanged in August, that is still something of a relief following the weak ISM manufacturing report earlier this week and the gloomy tone of the Fed's...

5th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Canada Chart Pack

Canada Chart Pack (Sep. 2024)

The economy looks to be entering a period of below-potential growth, characterised by excess supply in the goods and labour markets. This will keep downward pressure on core inflation, which we think...

5th September 2024 · 1 min read

Commodities Chart Pack

Commodities Chart Pack (Sep. 2024)

OPEC+ to face stick or twist moment at next meeting The recent slide in oil prices, to a 14-month low of $73pb at the time of writing, makes the looming OPEC+ decision on whether to unwind its...

5th September 2024 · 1 min read

US Economics Update

JOLTS shows continued labour market normalisation

Although job openings fell sharply in July, the totality of the JOLTS data points to a labour market that continues to normalise, rather than one rapidly deteriorating. That leaves it up to the August...

4th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Commodities Update

Cracks in oil demand to put OPEC+ to the test

The latest drop in oil prices, coupled with our expectation for global demand to remain weak, will make it practically impossible for OPEC+ to increase output while keeping Brent crude prices above...

4th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Bank puts up high bar for 50bp cut

Following its third consecutive 25bp interest rate cut today, the communications from the Bank of Canada reiterated that further cuts are likely. We expect 25 bp cuts at the final two meetings this...

4th September 2024 · 2 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Dallas tops our updated rankings of 34 industrial markets

The dynamism of the industrial sector means that market-level outperformance is often only achievable for short periods, because either relative value deteriorates or new supply quickly completes...

4th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Sep. 2024)

Following its third consecutive 25bp interest rate cut today, the communications from the Bank of Canada reiterated that further interest rate cuts are likely. The tone of the communications was less...

4th September 2024 · 2 mins read

US Rapid Response

International Trade (Jul. 2024)

The July trade data suggest that net trade will weigh on third-quarter GDP growth, but that is hardly cause for concern when it reflects the continued strength of imports, painting a better picture of...

4th September 2024 · 1 min read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada International Trade (Jul. 2024)

The improvement in the goods trade balance in July was for the wrong reasons, with a fall in imports outpacing a decline in exports. The weakness was due to sharp declines in motor vehicle trade...

4th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Capital Daily

Could the stock market ride out a recession?

Investors' concerns about the health of the US economy have intensified again, contributing to a selloff in global equity markets. The US stock market rode out an earnings recession last year thanks...

4th September 2024 · 4 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Mortgage Applications (Aug. 2024)

The drop in home purchase mortgage applications in August is surprising given the sharp fall in mortgage rates the month before. Some would-be buyers may be delaying their purchases due to increased...

4th September 2024 · 2 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Immigration will support largest multifamily markets

While the headline-hitting surge in immigration last year was mainly driven by a spike in unauthorized movement, legal immigration has picked up from its pandemic lows, which is good news for many...

3rd September 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

How does S&P 500 sector performance align with the ISM?

A disappointingly small rebound in the headline index of the US ISM manufacturing survey for August appears to have put some relative pressure on cyclical sectors of the S&P 500 today, which is down...

3rd September 2024 · 4 mins read

US Rapid Response

ISM Manufacturing Index (Aug. 2024)

The ISM manufacturing index was essentially unchanged in August, leaving it consistent with manufacturing output and GDP growth losing momentum in the third quarter, and a sharp drop in the new orders...

3rd September 2024 · 2 mins read