Global Commercial Property Chart Pack

Global Commercial Property Chartpack (Q3 2024)

All-property values have stabilised in the UK but we expect further falls elsewhere, especially in the US. Combined with a weaker office outlook, the US is set to underperform over the next couple of...

2nd October 2024 · 0 mins read

Capital Daily

Oil spikes, but not yet a concern for central banks

Brent crude oil has jumped by around 4% to ~$74.5pb at the time of writing, following reports that Iran is preparing a ballistic missile strike against Israel. Much remains uncertain. A key issue – if...

1st October 2024 · 5 mins read

US Economics Update

JOLTS point to further easing in wage growth

The August JOLTS data provides some reassurance against fears that labour market conditions will deteriorate further, while the sharp fall in the private quits rate suggests that core services...

1st October 2024 · 2 mins read

US Rapid Response

ISM Manufacturing Index (Sep. 2024)

The ISM manufacturing index was unchanged in September, although the jump in the production index and rebound in new orders paint a slightly less negative picture heading into the fourth quarter.

1st October 2024 · 2 mins read

US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook

Miami apartment market to feel the heat over 2025-28

Apartment markets are turning a corner, and we now expect the sector to outperform over the five year forecast. As new supply drops back from the second half of next year, we expect a mixture of...

1st October 2024 · 7 mins read

Canada Chart Pack

Canada Chart Pack (Oct. 2024)

The economy is stuck in a period of below-potential GDP growth, with previous interest rate hikes weighing on consumer spending and investment. This will keep downward pressure on core inflation...

30th September 2024 · 1 min read

US Economics Weekly

Revisions clear up some nagging doubts

Leading up to this week’s annual revisions to the national accounts, we were attuned of the risk that the expenditure-based real GDP measure might be revised lower to match up with the income-based...

27th September 2024 · 6 mins read

Capital Daily

Fewer cuts may push US & EZ yields up & the EUR sideways

We don’t see compelling reasons for policymakers in the US or the euro-zone to lower policy rates as much as market pricing suggests, so we expect long-dated bond yields there to edge up before long...

27th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

More reasons for the Bank to favour a 50bp cut

The upside surprise to GDP growth in July does not change the big picture that quarterly growth is likely to be much weaker than the Bank of Canada anticipated, while a host of other data releases...

27th September 2024 · 4 mins read

US Rapid Response

Income & Spending (Aug)

As we calculated based on the earlier price data releases, the core PCE deflator increased by a muted 0.13% m/m in August, with the headline deflator up by 0.09% m/m. Admittedly, although the monthly...

27th September 2024 · 1 min read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada GDP (Jul.)

Although the rise in GDP in July was stronger than expected, the preliminary estimate of unchanged GDP in August suggests that the momentum was short lived and puts third-quarter growth on track to...

27th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Global Economic Outlook

A soft patch

The global economy has hit a soft patch with the euro-zone virtually stagnant, the US labour market flagging and China rationing its policy stimulus. We expect this weakness to persist around the turn...

26th September 2024 (Updated 1st October 2024) · 44 mins read

US Employment Report Preview

Employment growth to ease further

We think labour market conditions continued to ease in September, with a 100,000 rise in non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate edging up to 4.3%.

26th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Climate Economics Update

Notes from LSE Environment Week

Ahead of COP29 in November, discussions have been taking place at events in London and New York this week on all things climate. We attended the LSE’s Environment Week to hear the thoughts of...

26th September 2024 · 3 mins read

US Rapid Response

GDP (Q2 3rd Est. & Annual Revision) & Durable Goods (Aug)

At first glance the annual revision to the national accounts doesn’t appear to have had much of an impact – with second-quarter GDP growth left unchanged at 3.0% and core PCE inflation unchanged at 2...

26th September 2024 · 2 mins read