US Data Response Durable Goods (Feb.) The 1.0% m/m fall in durable goods orders in February indicates that business equipment investment was weak even before the banking turmoil arose. With business confidence likely to have taken a hit... 24th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) The large rise in retail sales volumes in January and the even bigger increase in sales at food service & drinking places imply that household consumption rose strongly at the start of the year... 24th March 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Regional banks’ CRE exposure to weigh on lending US regional banks’ higher exposure to CRE debt means we expect their struggles to weigh heavily on credit availability for commercial real estate investors. Even without building in second round... 23rd March 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Feb.) The modest recovery in new home sales continued in February reflecting support from price reductions and incentives offered by homebuilders, as well as a tight existing home market pushing buyers to... 23rd March 2023 · 2 mins read
Event Property Drop-In: What are the risks around commercial real estate? 1680015600 A degree of calm has returned to markets, but investors remain nervous about where the next blow-up could occur – and attention is increasingly focused on commercial real estate. But are the c
US Economics Update Fed plays for time with dovish hike The 25bp rate hike and new projections unveiled by the Fed today were towards the more dovish end of potential outcomes. Despite recent strong economic data, officials acknowledged the likely hit from... 22nd March 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Equity rally amid bond volatility seems complacent The recent resilience in US equities is at odds with the surge in volatility in Treasuries. While the macro outlook is especially uncertain at present, we find it hard to envisage a scenario in which... 22nd March 2023 · 6 mins read
US Chart Pack Crisis easing, but economic damage yet to be felt Recent data suggest the economy’s strong start to the year was mostly sustained in February, with consumption growth set to accelerate in the first quarter, payroll employment growth robust and... 22nd March 2023 · 10 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Equities stuck between a rock and a hard place Although recent strains in the banking sector mean that the economic outlook is especially uncertain, in our view equities are unlikely to perform particularly well, regardless of how things play out. 22nd March 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Even if the worst is over for banks, the outlook remains bleak A risk-on mood has prevailed today amid easing concerns over the US banking system. That seems to reflect a view that intervention, perhaps including an extension of FDIC insurance to deposits above... 21st March 2023 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Feb.) Existing home sales rebounded in February as buyers took advantage of falling mortgage rates. Weak mortgage applications data point to sales dropping back again in March, but with turmoil in the... 21st March 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) In case the turmoil in the global banking sector left any doubt, the sharper-than-expected fall in headline CPI inflation in February suggests there is little chance that the Bank of Canada will be... 21st March 2023 · 2 mins read
