US Commercial Property Outlook Office values set to tank over the next two years We have made substantial downgrades to our forecasts this quarter. Aside from their direct impact through tighter lending conditions, last month’s regional bank failures appear to be helping... 6th April 2023 · 23 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly House price rebound would make Bank’s job harder The local real estate board data suggest that new listings fell again in March, defying expectations that high interest rates could lead to forced home sales. With supply falling by more than demand... 6th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt “risky” assets will continue to defy economic gravity We still think “risky” assets are set for a tough time as the US economy continues to slow. 6th April 2023 · 7 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Mar.) The unemployment rate remained very low at 5.0% in March but, with wage growth slowing and the survey indicators pointing to a sharper decline ahead, the Bank of Canada is unlikely to be too concerned... 6th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The US stock market is not braced for a recession We anticipate that the S&P 500 will fall back later in 2023, largely because analysts are far from pricing in a recession in the US that we think is even more likely after the recent banking turmoil... 6th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Still pausing for thought The recent banking turmoil in the US means the Bank of Canada may sound more dovish next week, but the economy’s strong start to the year suggests it is too soon for the Bank to take further interest... 5th April 2023 · 7 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Feb.) February saw a slowdown in jobs growth after a strong month prior, suggesting January’s jump in employment was an outlier as the labour market resumes its cooling. We expect metros with a high... 5th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Event US Drop-In: March CPI and the Fed’s next steps 1681308000 Will underlying inflation prove to be stickier than we thought?
US Economics Update Recession Watch (Mar.) Our composite models suggest the economy was on track to fall into recession soon even before the impact of the banking turmoil feeds through. There also appears to be a lower, but rising, chance that... 5th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Focus Is 2% core inflation feasible this year? Underlying inflation pressures are still well above the 2% mid-point of the Bank of Canada’s target range, but there are several reasons to expect disinflationary forces to build. We forecast that CPI... 5th April 2023 · 13 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Mar.) A sharp decline in 10-year Treasury yields in the middle of March led to a drop in mortgage rates, restoking demand for mortgage applications as a result. We expect this will help offset a tightening... 5th April 2023 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Feb.) The sharp declines in both exports and imports in February add to the signs that economic growth is faltering. Although strong gains in January mean that both are still likely to have risen over the... 5th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Feb.) Exports are still on track to rise this quarter, despite declining in February specifically, but the renewed deterioration in the survey-based export indicators points to weakness in the second... 5th April 2023 · 3 mins read
