Capital Daily We see weaker growth ending the rally in US equities The resilience of the S&P 500 over the past month or so makes some sense given the boost to valuations from lower “risk-free” interest rates. That said, we think that equity investors are... 4th April 2023 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data show labour market normalising The sharp fall in job openings in February shows that labour demand was cooling even before the recent banking turmoil and provides another reason to think that the Fed’s tightening cycle is nearly... 4th April 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Focus Where are the risks from US commercial real estate greatest? While we expect a more-than 20% peak-to-trough price correction for US commercial real estate, offices face a much tougher outlook, with large falls in net operating incomes compounding the broader re... 4th April 2023 · 14 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor Narrow money growth has turned negative as savers have shifted out of bank deposits and into money market funds and bonds, which now offer significantly higher returns. Bank loan growth remains robust... 4th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Business Outlook & Consumer Expect. Surveys (Q1) There was plenty to be encouraged by in the Bank of Canada’s business and consumer surveys, with firms’ sales expectations holding up even as labour and other capacity pressures eased considerably... 3rd April 2023 · 3 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar.) The slump in the ISM manufacturing index to a new cyclical low of 46.3 in March, from 47.7, indicates that the post zero-Covid recovery in manufacturing activity in China has not benefited US... 3rd April 2023 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Temporary factors support strong start to the year The strength of GDP growth at the start of the year reflected several temporary factors. The Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly surveys, released next week, will provide a better guide to how firms and... 31st March 2023 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Recent strong momentum starts to wane After an unexpectedly strong start to the year in January, which was mostly maintained in February, the March data will tell us whether that early strength was a temporary weather-related spike or a... 31st March 2023 · 8 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jan.) The strength of GDP growth in January, and probably February too, suggests the Bank of Canada will use its April meeting to reiterate that, despite the recent banking turmoil, it is still prepared to... 31st March 2023 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Housing market insulated from banking crisis The latest mortgage market data show that the banking crisis has, so far, had a minimal impact on the housing market. While spreads have increased, overall mortgage rates have dropped and applications... 30th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economic Outlook From cost of living crisis to banking crisis? The strongest headwind for the global economy has shifted from an energy crisis and the related squeeze on real incomes to a potential banking crisis and associated drag on credit. Since banks are... 30th March 2023 · 46 mins read
