Asset Allocation Outlook

Asset allocation as the Fed cuts and the US votes

We expect equities to fare best among the major asset classes we track through the end of 2025, as the AI bubble reinflates. We suspect government and corporate bonds will generally do less well...

25th September 2024 · 28 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

New Home Sales (Aug. 2024)

New home sales dropped back slightly in August, which always seemed likely after the 10% surge in transactions the month before, driven by pent-up buyers responding to lower borrowing costs. Still...

25th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Canada Economic Outlook

Weak growth to prompt more aggressive loosening

With the inflation battle all but won, weak GDP growth will force the Bank of Canada into more aggressive action, with a couple of 50bp interest rate cuts to end this year. We expect the Bank to adopt...

25th September 2024 · 14 mins read

US Economics Update

Port strike won’t rock the boat

The strike at East and Gulf Coast ports is unlikely to trigger major economic disruption. Many retailers have made plans in anticipation of the strike and our sense is that, this close to the election...

25th September 2024 (Updated 1st October 2024) · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Update

Sellers lose grip on the market

Increased supply and weak demand are both contributing to the slowdown in house price growth. The recent sharp drop in mortgage rates should cause the market to retighten, but it will take time for...

24th September 2024 · 4 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jul. 2024)

Another muted 0.2% rise in house prices in July adds to the sense that the housing market is cooling amid weak buyer demand and growing supply. As price growth continues to moderate quickly with no...

24th September 2024 · 2 mins read

US Economic Outlook

Economy to benefit from lower interest rates

With inflation normalising due to improving supply, the Fed is in the fortuitous position of being able to lower interest rates even though economic growth remains solid and the unemployment rate is...

23rd September 2024 · 15 mins read

US Commercial Property Office Metros Outlook

Houston rockets to the top of the office rankings

Offices are still in for a tough few years, with markets like San Francisco, LA and Seattle likely to come out of the downturn with values down 55% or more from their 2019 peaks. However, there are...

20th September 2024 · 7 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

50 is the new 25

The Summary of Deliberations from this month’s policy meeting showed policymakers at the Bank of Canada are increasingly concerned around the downside risks to inflation and activity. With growth set...

20th September 2024 · 4 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Fed opts for a 50 despite strong GDP growth

The Fed’s decision to start its rate cutting cycle with a bang was not a big surprise after the seemingly coordinated media articles late last week warning that the 25bp vs 50bp debate was closer than...

20th September 2024 · 6 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Retail Sales (Jul. 2024)

The rebound in retail sales volumes in July will be welcome news to the Bank of Canada, which has been concerned about the downside risks to the economy. With the outlook for sales positive, there is...

20th September 2024 · 1 min read

Global Economics Update

Five key themes in world trade

In the months ahead, there are five themes to watch for in the world of trade and shipping, the most immediate of which is the risk of strikes at US East and Gulf coast ports in October. The upshot is...

19th September 2024 · 6 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Existing Home Sales (Aug. 2024)

The slump in existing home sales in August shows that the sharp fall in mortgage rates since late-July is yet to stimulate the market, although the signs of life in last week’s purchase mortgage...

19th September 2024 · 2 mins read

US Chart Pack

US Chart Pack (Sep. 2024)

After kicking off its loosening cycle with a 50bp cut, we suspect the Fed will now revert to 25bp moves until the fed funds target range reaches 3.00% to 3.25% in mid-2025. Looser monetary policy...

19th September 2024 · 1 min read

Capital Daily

Is the easing cycle already priced in?

Markets barely reacted to the Fed’s 50bp rate cut, on balance, and our base case is that further cuts won’t move the needle too much either. In view of the broader interest we are sending this early...

19th September 2024 · 4 mins read