Capital Daily Three key points ahead of the FOMC We think that three main points are worth highlighting when gauging the scope for the Fed to spring a surprise on global markets when its policy meeting concludes later today. 1st February 2023 · 7 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Dec.) Despite the solid payrolls data for December, there was a clear softening in employment growth in several large metros. But those that have performed the best since the pandemic continue to outperform... 1st February 2023 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jan.) The sharp rise in mortgage applications in January adds to the evidence that housing demand has bottomed out. As mortgage rates continue to trend lower and house prices fall a further 6%, we expect... 1st February 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Recession Watch (Jan.) Our tracking models now suggest the economy is more likely than not to be in recession in three months’ time, supporting the message from the latest surveys and hard activity data that GDP is likely... 31st January 2023 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Nov.) A fifth consecutive monthly decline in house prices in November left them down 2.5% from their peak in June on the Case-Shiller index. We think that prices will fall by a further 6% this year before... 31st January 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Nov.) The monthly data suggest GDP growth slowed to 1.6% annualised in the fourth quarter, which would be better than initially expected considering the surge in interest rates. Nonetheless, with some of... 31st January 2023 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed paying foreign banks & money market funds It’s well known that, with the yield curve inverting the Fed is now racking up losses, but what is less appreciated is that the higher interest payments it is making are going mostly to foreign banks... 30th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Financial conditions, central banks, and recessions The Fed, ECB and BoE meet later this week and we wouldn’t be surprised if they take the chance to push back against the recent loosening in financial conditions. And even if their words don’t have... 30th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the latest rally in the S&P 500 will last We doubt the recent rally in the S&P 500 will prove sustainable. Our view is that US real yields won’t fall much further and that the US economy will soon enter a recession, producing some more near... 27th January 2023 · 8 mins read
US Housing Market Update Affordability won’t return to its post-GFC level Our forecasts for house prices, mortgage rates and incomes over the next few years mean affordability will remain relatively stretched compared with the past 15 years. But there is good reason to... 27th January 2023 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed close to peak in rates as activity stagnates Commentators were quick to dismiss the latest decline in the leading indicators index, which left it pointing unambiguously to a recession. But despite the apparent resilience of fourth-quarter GDP... 27th January 2023 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Easing labour shortages support Bank’s pause Governor Tiff Macklem stressed on Wednesday that the pause in the Bank of Canada’s tightening cycle is conditional on looser conditions in the labour market and a fall in inflation expectations. The... 27th January 2023 · 5 mins read
