Global Markets Update Lower inflation looks priced in, but slower growth doesn’t A further decline in US inflation seems largely priced in to financial markets. But we still think investors are too optimistic about how quickly the economy will grow, and as such are sticking with... 14th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Making sense of the strength of employment The surge in employment in January highlights that some sectors are still recovering strongly and raises the prospect that the economy could avoid recession, although we still judge that a modest one... 14th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Stocks, bonds, and inflation compensation Although they seem to have begun to rise again over recent weeks, we think that investors’ inflation expectations in the US are likely to fall back over the coming months. That would help Treasuries... 14th February 2023 · 7 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The 0.5% m/m increase in consumer prices in January suggests that the downward trend in inflation is slowing. But we still expect the disinflationary process to re-accelerate soon, as easing shortages... 14th February 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Jan.) The expected slowdown in net lending to real estate began to show in January. This was seen across all sectors and the latest Senior Loan Officer survey suggested this will continue, as banks cited a... 13th February 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Strong employment won’t force the Bank to do more The surge in employment and rise in hours worked in January suggest that economic activity continued to expand at the start of 2023 and present clear upside risks to our forecasts for GDP growth... 10th February 2023 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar edges higher ahead of US CPI data next week The US dollar is set to end the week a touch stronger against most currencies, adding to its gains last week. But, aside from the Japanese yen round-tripping on news over the next BoJ governor, it’s... 10th February 2023 · 11 mins read
Commodities Weekly All eyes on US data next week It was a fairly quiet week in commodities markets, although oil prices rose on concerns about earthquake-related disruption to exports from the Turkish port of Ceyhan and Russia’s announcement of a 0... 10th February 2023 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Markets coming round to the Fed’s view on rates Markets have continued to swing round to the Fed’s view that rate cuts are unlikely this year. We still believe that those cuts are coming, however, as economic growth disappoints and core inflation... 10th February 2023 · 9 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Slow recovery in sales and further falls in prices Housing market activity is likely to recover only gradually from its current lows, which means we think 2023 will be the weakest year for sales since 2012. Affordability will remain stretched by past... 10th February 2023 · 18 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jan.) The surge in employment and rise in hours worked in January suggest that GDP growth will be stronger than we anticipated this quarter. However, the decline in wage growth means that unexpected... 10th February 2023 · 3 mins read
