Asia Economics Update Would Vietnam win a second trade war? Donald Trump’s threat to impose a blanket 10% tariff on all US imports would hit Vietnam hard. But provided they were accompanied by a 60% tariff on all imports from China (as Trump has also threated)... 18th March 2024 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (Jan. & Feb. 2024) China’s economy continued to show some improvement at the start of the year thanks to strength in exports and fiscal stimulus, even as consumer spending made little headway. We expect the recovery to... 18th March 2024 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Equipment investment push may aggravate imbalances Chinese policymakers want firms to increase equipment investment by 25% over the coming four years. If achieved, that would provide a temporary boost to domestic demand and GDP growth. But the lasting... 15th March 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Taiwan: strong growth, but falling inflation Despite the booming economy, inflation in Taiwan has been falling back in recent months. Accordingly, we expect the central bank (CBC) to leave interest rates unchanged at its meeting on Thursday. 15th March 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM growth divergence set to continue We expect the divergence in growth prospects observed in EM Q4 GDP data to be a running theme over the next couple of quarters too. Specifically, we think that some of last year’s outperformers... 14th March 2024 · 3 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Feb. 2024) CPI inflation turned positive last month for the first time since September, thanks to temporary factors such as the volatility in food and tourism prices around Lunar New Year. But persistent... 11th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea: resilient activity data, sticky inflation We are sticking with our view that the Bank of Korea will cut interest rates at its June meeting, but the recent resilience of the economy and the stickiness of inflation means the risks are skewed to... 8th March 2024 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response China Merchandise Trade (Jan. & Feb. 2024) China’s export values rose y/y at the fastest rate since May, with export volumes reaching a record high. We doubt the sustainability of this strength, however, since exporters now have more limited... 7th March 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Focus Property construction correction has barely begun The drag from the unavoidable structural decline in China’s property sector has only just begun. Property sales and project starts have collapsed. But property construction activity has retreated only... 6th March 2024 · 14 mins read
China Economics Focus China’s economic roadmap for 2024 The policy agenda laid out at the National People’s Congress today is a reasonably pro-growth one. The new fiscal plans are supportive, monetary policy continues to have an easing bias, and the... 5th March 2024 · 15 mins read
China Economics Weekly What to watch at the National People’s Congress The annual meeting of China’s parliament will open on Tuesday with a panoply of speeches and reports. Here’s what to focus on. 1st March 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea: President Yoon’s rise in popularity boosts reform hopes President Yoon Suk-yeol has seen a rebound in his popularity in recent weeks, helped in part by the strong stance he has taken against the country’s striking junior doctors. The improvement in the... 1st March 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs & Korean trade The February PMIs for economies in Emerging Asia edged down last month and were mostly inside contractionary territory. The outlook for manufacturing in the region remains poor in the near term, with... 1st March 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Feb. 2024) The PMIs are consistent with activity holding steady in February, at least on paper. Although the survey readings remain below historical averages, this is likely distorted by sentiment effects --... 1st March 2024 · 2 mins read
