China Economics Update A high-stakes game of chicken President Trump has threatened to hit back hard if China doesn’t back away from the trade restrictions it announced last week. This latest dispute could still blow over if cool heads prevail – a... 13th October 2025 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rebounds; blast from the past for yen & Argentina While President Trump’s return to the trade war path this afternoon has led to a drop in the dollar, it has risen, on net, this week – despite (or perhaps because of) the absence of most US economic... 10th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+ plays it safe; China’s oil stockpiling frenzy continues The ongoing and sizeable build-up of oil stockpiles in China is helping to counteract underlying sluggish oil demand growth, and helps to explain why oil prices have not fallen as far as might have... 10th October 2025 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Soft holiday data underscore weak consumption outlook Retail sales growth slowed over the summer and there were no signs of a revival in consumer activity during the recent National Day holiday. With property prices still falling and the labour market... 10th October 2025 · 6 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Coalition Talks The departure of long-standing partner Komeito from Japan’s ruling coalition means that the election of Sanae Takaichi as PM is no longer guaranteed but we still expect her to declare victory... 10th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Thai deflation risks GDP growth in Vietnam held firm at 8.2% y/y in Q3, underpinned by resilient exports despite the 20% US tariffs introduced in August. The strength of the export sector likely reflects increased re... 10th October 2025 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Trade deals back in focus The flurry of activity around bilateral trade deals this week highlights the shift to a more liberal approach among Indian policymakers. Politically-sensitive sectors such as agriculture will probably... 10th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Fiscal uncertainty adds to case for BoJ inaction Sanae Takaichi won Saturday’s LDP leadership elections but is struggling to gather enough support in parliament to become PM as long-standing partner Komeito has threatened to abandon the coalition... 10th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We’re now less upbeat on the yen, more on the TOPIX We now think the yen will appreciate a bit more slowly against the US dollar than we’d previously forecast, but we’re revising up our projections for Japan’s stock market. 10th October 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update China tightens its grip on rare earths (again) China has substantially expanded its rare earth export controls – these now apply not only to a wider range of elements and magnets but, on paper least, any goods that contain them in meaningful... 9th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: infrastructure boost starting to pay off The recent corruption scandal involving flood-control projects has cast a shadow over the Philippines’ infrastructure drive. Yet despite this, the country has seen substantial improvements in roads... 9th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Philippines Monetary Policy Announcement (October) 9th October 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Rare budget surplus within reach Japan may record a rare budget surplus this year which means that the incoming PM has more fiscal leeway than is generally acknowledged. However, as that improvement won’t be confirmed until late-2026... 9th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update Philippines and the risks from the corruption scandal The ongoing investigation into corruption in the Philippines brings the risk of further protests over the coming months. So long as any unrest is limited in scale and duration, the economic and... 8th October 2025 · 6 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Oct. 2025) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth will slow from its current above-trend rate to a more sustainable pace. However, with... 8th October 2025 · 1 min read
