Asia Economics Update Malaysia’s 2013 growth to disappoint The Bank of Thailand kept its policy rate at 2.50% today. We continue to expect the central bank to keep rates low for the rest of 2013 before gradually tightening in 2014 as growth prospects improve. 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thai rates to stay unchanged in 2013 The Bank of Thailand kept its policy rate at 2.50% today. We continue to expect the central bank to keep rates low for the rest of 2013 before gradually tightening in 2014 as growth prospects improve. 21st August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is India heading toward crisis? The slide of the rupee has triggered speculation that India is heading toward a balance of payments crisis. We do not think a crisis is on the cards, but the outlook is downbeat and fraught with risks... 20th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three questions (and answers) about the EM currency sell-off The renewed sell-off in EM currencies has cast a fresh spotlight on vulnerabilities in the emerging world. In this Update we answer three key questions that have been raised by recent market moves. 20th August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update A strong rebound in Thailand’s growth is unlikely Thailand’s Q2 GDP data showed continued weakness in the economy, and we do not expect much of a rebound in the second half of the year. Given the central bank’s limited scope to aggressively loosen... 19th August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia’s industrial outperformance to continue Asia’s manufacturers have had a hard time since the global financial crisis, and are currentlystruggling through yet another weak patch. However, they have actually done much betterthan their peers in... 19th August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rate hikes likely in Indonesia before year-end Bank Indonesia’s decision to leave interest rates on hold today does not mean the end of the tightening cycle. However, with the recent spike in inflation likely to prove temporary and the economy... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand's credit growth is a serious risk to the economy Thailand's private sector credit as a share of GDP has increased significantly in recent years, raising concerns about financial stability. Even if a crisis is avoided, current credit growth rates are... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India’s latest data underline stagflation problem India’s latest data releases underline the challenges faced by the country and its new central bank governor. Today’s inflation data show that wholesale price inflation accelerated and consumer price... 14th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus What does the “services revolution” mean for EMs? Improvements in technology are making it increasingly easy to trade services. This has led some commentators to argue that services can become a more viable driver of EM growth, allowing EMs to break... 14th August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly India’s new central bank governor to keep a tight rein Last week India appointed Raghuram Rajan, a former chief economist at the IMF, as the new governor of the Reserve Bank (RBI). The new governor takes over at a tricky time, with India’s economy... 12th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM trade steadies after first half slowdown There are some signs in the latest EM trade data that the slowdown in exports witnessed over the first half of this year has eased. Even so, export growth remains broadly flat in year-on-year terms in... 8th August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update No change in Korean rates on the horizon The Bank of Korea’s (BoK) decision to keep interest rates on hold today was no great surprise given continued low inflation and recent signs of a pick-up in GDP growth. We expect to see rates on hold... 8th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs likely to tread carefully with energy subsidy reform High global energy prices have contributed to rising subsidy spending across much of the emerging world. Some EMs have already started to cut back on subsidies. But fears of inflation and civil unrest... 6th August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia to keep policy loose as mining boom cools The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut its cash rate by 25bp to 2.5% at its meeting today. It is likely to keep rates very low over the next two years to support the economy through a mining slowdown... 6th August 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia’s consumers seeing mixed fortunes For all the hype about the rise of the Asian consumer, the recent performance of consumer spending in Asia has been disappointing. The weakness is largely explained by subdued spending in the region’s... 5th August 2013 · 1 min read
