Asia Economics Update Rupee weakness complicates India's policy outlook Growing concern about the rupee’s decline and lingering worries about inflation appear to have been the key factors in the Reserve Bank of India’s decision to keep the repo rate unchanged at 7.25%... 17th June 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Should Asia be worried by recent currency weakness? Asian currencies have fallen sharply in recent weeks as worries about the consequences of a scaling back of quantitative easing continue to build. This Weekly looks at the macro impact of the sell-off... 17th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Competitiveness concerns are in Latin America, not China Despite having experienced relatively rapid wage growth in recent years, there is little evidence that China has suffered a significant loss of export competitiveness. Instead, the EM region that has... 14th June 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's inflation eases further, but RBI should remain on hold Today’s further fall in India's wholesale price inflation will come as a relief to policymakers. While the odds of a rate cut have now risen, we still think the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will opt to... 14th June 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rest of Asia unlikely to follow Indonesia's tightening path Bank Indonesia’s unexpected decision to hike its main policy rate today reflects concern about recent downward pressure on the rupiah and worries over the inflation outlook. Further hikes will follow... 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand will remain reluctant to hike rates The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its policy rate at 2.5% today. We continue to expect the cash rate to remain on hold until the end of the year and to be kept low in 2014. 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs should be worried about weaker currencies? Most EMs are likely to tolerate the recent sell-off in their currencies. In some places this may even be welcomed. But there are a few exceptions. Inflation concerns mean that currency weakness will... 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rupee decline highlights India’s fundamental weaknesses Talk of “policy tapering” by the Federal Reserve has been the catalyst for a broad-based sell-off in emerging market currencies. Within Asia, the worst performer has been the rupee. Its decline... 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further hikes in Indonesia's Fasbi rate likely before year-end Bank Indonesia’s decision today to hike the rate it pays lenders on overnight deposits (also known as the Fasbi rate) reflects concerns about the weakness of the rupiah and falls in the level of... 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor No recovery in sight for EM exports The weakness of the global economy continues to keep export growth subdued across Emerging Markets (EMs). Even in Asia, where exports held up relatively well until very recently, growth in trade has... 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asian currencies take a tumble A number of Asian currencies have experienced big falls against the US dollar over the past few weeks. This Weekly looks at which currencies have been hit the hardest, the factors behind the recent... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Construction points to weak EM investment Construction has started the year on a weak note across the emerging world and particularly in those EMs that most need to raise their investment rates, notably Brazil and Russia. This adds weight to... 6th June 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia's growth to be dragged lower by mining slowdown Australia’s GDP growth remained slightly below trend in Q1. We expect growth to slow over the coming quarters as monetary loosening is unlikely to fully offset cooling mining investment. 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing downturn deepens The 25% year-on-year rise in equity prices in advanced economies, combined with rising property prices in some countries, should provide a boost to household consumption. However, we suspect the... 4th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Assessing EM government debt dynamics High public debt and large budget deficits mean that the governments of Egypt, Jordan and Hungary need to tighten fiscal policy. Moreover, despite appearing healthy, the public finances of some... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update May PMIs suggest manufacturing recovery continues to falter The May PMIs for emerging Asia suggest the region’s manufacturing recovery has lost momentum. Most central banks have loosened monetary policy in recent months, but they will not be able to fully... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
