Emerging Markets Economics Update The EM winners and losers from the shale revolution There’s a vast amount of uncertainty about the potential for developing countries to follow the US and Canada in exploiting their shale reserves. But if they can, it could turn a large number of... 3rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM PMIs fall again, but Emerging Europe bucks the trend June’s PMIs suggest that the downturn in emerging market manufacturing is gathering pace, with our EM-wide PMI estimate dropping to its lowest level for nearly a year. Producers in Asia and Latin... 2nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia’s rate-cutting cycle is not over yet The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its cash rate on hold at 2.75% at its meeting today, as was widely expected. In its accompanying statement, the RBA stressed that it expects an improvement in... 2nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update June PMIs provide little encouragement The June PMIs for Emerging Asia suggest the region’s manufacturing sectors continue to struggle. New orders were particularly disappointing. We think fragile global demand will make life difficult for... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Would a US manufacturing recovery be a threat to Asia? Concerns that a manufacturing renaissance in the US could negate the benefits for Asia of stronger US growth are probably overblown. But with the euro-zone and Chinese economies still subdued, Asian... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Market turmoil unlikely to cause EMs to slow via wealth effects While at first sight it does look like the recent falls in emerging market (EM) equities could cause growth to slow via “wealth effects”, we think there are only limited grounds for concern. 28th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth slows to weakest pace since global financial crisis Our GDP Tracker suggests that the EM slowdown has continued into the start of Q2. Although all three main regions have reported disappointing growth, there are signs that the downturn in Emerging... 27th June 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam’s economy to remain in the doldrums Data released today suggest that Vietnam’s economy remains in the doldrums, amid a severe banking crisis which has led to a squeeze on credit. Problems in the banking sector are likely to weigh on the... 27th June 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Capital outflows pose economic challenge The main development of the past month has been the big sell-off in financial markets which has been triggered by worries about the consequences of a scaling back of QE in the US. Foreign investors... 26th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor QE tapering unlikely to trigger an EM crisis We do not expect the tapering and eventual ending of QE by the US Fed to be the trigger for a systemic Emerging Market (EM) crisis. Our Capital Economics Risk Indicator (CERI) suggests that financial... 26th June 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What does Abenomics mean for the rest of Asia? Hopes that the policies of Prime Minister Abe’s new government will transform the outlook for Japan’s economy have lifted sentiment in the country. This Weekly takes a look at the implications of... 24th June 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Should Asia fear a repeat of 1994? As the Fed prepares to taper its program of quantitative easing, there are some concerns in Asia that it could trigger a messy re-run of 1994. We think these concerns are exaggerated. 21st June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack QE tapering to have limited impact on EM growth Concerns about a tapering of the US Fed’s asset purchases under QE3 have caused a sell-off in EM financial markets, but we think the economic impact on EMs from the end of ultra-loose monetary... 21st June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The economic impact of Fed tapering on EMs Yesterday’s FOMC meeting cemented expectations that the Fed will start to taper its asset purchases under QE3 later this year and has weighed on EM financial markets today, but the economic impact of... 20th June 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand set for a moderate pick-up New Zealand’s economy grew slower than expected in Q1, as drought hit the agricultural sector. A pick-up is likely over the coming quarters, but weak export demand and tight fiscal policy will prevent... 20th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Currency sell-off unlikely to push EM inflation up Emerging Market (EM) inflation edged down last month and looks likely to remain subdued, in spite of the recent sell-off in EM currencies. 19th June 2013 · 1 min read
