Emerging Markets Economics Update External positions a concern not just for “BIITS” The currencies of the so-called “BIITS” (Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey and South Africa) have been singled out as being particularly vulnerable to a tightening of global monetary conditions. This... 21st October 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly South East Asia's struggles set to continue next year ASEAN has been one of the bright spots in Emerging Asia over the past few years. However, slowing growth and signs of backtracking on economic reform have made 2013 a difficult year for ASEAN's three... 21st October 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update No rate changes in Thailand through to mid-2014 The Bank of Thailand kept its policy rate unchanged today at a low of just 2.50% against a backdrop of low inflation and weak growth. Although interest rates hikes are likely to start next year, the... 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Why BRICs weakness is here to stay The IMF has downgraded its expectations for growth in the BRICS over the next couple of years, bringing its forecasts into line with our own. But while at face value the Fund expects growth to rebound... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Singapore's outlook is upbeat, despite Q3 contraction Today’s GDP data showed that Singapore's economy contracted in Q3. Nevertheless, the outlook remains upbeat. As such, the MAS saw no reason to change its policy stance at its meeting today. We do not... 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asian export prospects looking up The IMF is right to argue that fiscal policy in South Africa needs to be tightened over the coming years in order to put public debt on a stable path. But its recommendation that South Africa adopt a... 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Continued recovery in EM trade The most recent Emerging Market (EM) trade data show that export growth maintained its upward trend in August. Forward-looking indicators point to further gains over the year ahead. 11th October 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is Thailand’s current account deficit a problem? Thailand’s current account has slipped from surplus into deficit in the last couple of years. We expect the deficit to stabilise over the coming year and think the chances of a balance of payments... 11th October 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Where and why do our forecasts differ from the IMF’s? In its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO), the IMF has cut its growth forecasts for most Emerging Asian economies, bringing them more or less into line with our own. However, there are three key... 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US default would put familiar faces back in the firing line A default by the US government would be without precedent and the potential spillovers to emerging markets are unclear. Nonetheless, it seems likely that the same EMs that were hit during the summer... 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update No rate increases in Korea anytime soon The Bank of Korea’s kept interest rates on hold today amid signs that the economy is slowly improving. Looking ahead, low inflationary pressures mean the central bank will be in no hurry to tighten... 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Weak growth but no crisis Financial markets have awakened to the vulnerabilities in the emerging world. These are real and will weigh on growth in the years ahead. But we believe that the doomsayers will be proved wrong – an... 8th October 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook China and India holding back regional rebound GDP growth in Emerging Asia over the next couple of years is likely to remain lacklustre by recent historical standards. The main reason for the subdued outlook is poor growth prospects in the region... 8th October 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India cuts effective policy rate The decision by India’s central bank to cut the interest rate on its Marginal Standing Facility (MSF), which it describes as a “calibrated withdrawal of exceptional measures”, equates to a further... 7th October 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Can Asia develop through services alone? As improvements in technology have made it easier to trade services, some commentators are suggesting that services-led growth provides an alternative development path for emerging economies. The... 7th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery continues, but unevenly Our EM-wide PMI suggests that the recovery in EM manufacturing continued at the end of Q3. However, the improvement is uneven. The rebound was most prominent in Emerging Europe, helped by the... 2nd October 2013 · 1 min read
