Global Markets Update Best-performing EM equities unlikely to stay on top We think that the best-performing countries in the MSCI EM Index so far this year will end up nearer the bottom of the class over the rest of 2019. That is because we expect the key factors driving... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Synchronised downturn The emerging world has entered its first synchronised downturn since 2015. Our growth forecasts remain below consensus in nearly all major EMs. With growth slowing and inflation near a decade low, EM... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Pakistan and the IMF, inflation falls in the Philippines Pakistan looks to be close to agreeing the terms of a bailout package with the IMF. As the price for a deal, the IMF is likely to demand a further sharp tightening in fiscal and monetary policy as... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing improves at the end of Q1 The rise in the aggregate EM manufacturing PMI at the end of last quarter suggests that the slowdown in EM industrial production growth may have bottomed out. 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade, Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) PMIs rose across much of Emerging Asia last month. But it’s too soon to call a turning point. The PMIs for the region’s biggest manufacturing sectors still point to a contraction in output, while... 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Weak Q1 data, Thai election, rupiah under pressure The recent economic data from across Emerging Asia have continued to disappoint. Our Emerging Asia GDP Tracker suggest the regional is now growing at its weakest pace in three years. Meanwhile... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Vietnam GDP (Q1) Vietnam’s economy expanded at a decent pace in the first quarter of the year, but with exports set to remain weak and fiscal policy being tightened, we expect growth to slow over the next couple of... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Key frontier market currencies hold up well, for now Frontier market currencies have fared better than their emerging market counterparts during the recent market turmoil. But their balance sheets are generally much weaker, making currencies vulnerable... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Malaysia’s central bank hints at rate cuts Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) today dropped its clearest hint yet that interest rate cuts are on the way after it lowered its growth forecasts for this year and pledged that monetary policy would be... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM GDP growth slowing in Q1 The slowdown in EM GDP growth over the second half of 2018 worsened at the start of this year. EM GDP growth in Q1 is shaping up to be the weakest since Q4 2016. 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM currencies come back into the firing line A spell of relative calm for EM currencies was broken this month, as several including the Argentine peso, Turkish lira, Brazilian real and South African rand fell sharply, despite a more dovish US... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Trade downturn, Malaysia deflation, Thai election The past week has brought further bad news on the trade front, with more countries reporting a decline in exports. A turn in the electronics inventory cycle, the trade war and weaker global demand are... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Picking apart the EM export slowdown The most notable explanation behind the recent sharp slowdown in EM export growth is the fall in commodity prices. But there are signs that softer global demand has also taken its toll. 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand to leave rates unchanged this year The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left interest rates on hold today but sounded decidedly more dovish than at its previous meeting. While weak growth and low inflation will take hikes off the table, the BoT... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export slump worsens The slump in EM exports deepened in the first few months of 2019, and with headwinds from low commodity prices and slower global growth likely to persist, we expect exports to remain extremely weak... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines budget deadlock, Indonesia election Economic growth in the Philippines is likely to slow unless the 2019 budget is approved soon, but the cuts the government has announced to its GDP growth forecast for this year look too severe. We... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
