Asia Data Response Vietnam GDP (Q2) Vietnam’s economy grew strongly in the second quarter of the year and the economy is likely to perform well over the coming year, helped by booming exports to the US. 28th June 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM growth running at a three-year low EM GDP growth slowed to just 3.3% y/y in Q1, its weakest pace since the first half of 2016, and our Tracker suggests that it remained sluggish in Q2. Growth should pick up a little in the second half... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Growth continues to weaken, rates to be cut further After a very weak first quarter that saw GDP growth in many countries drop to a post-financial crisis low, the most recent data suggest growth across Emerging Asia has continued to slow. Weak growth... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM easing cycles not all to do with the Fed Financial markets have come round rapidly in the last few weeks to our view that EM monetary policy will be loosened further this year. But EM loosening cycles have much more to do with weak domestic... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export weakness to persist, trade deal or not The upcoming meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi at the G20 summit has raised hopes of a US-China trade deal but, as things stand, we think it is more likely that the trade war will ultimately... 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What happens after IMF deals? With EMs such as Argentina, Ukraine and Ecuador having recently agreed IMF deals, and others (Turkey) still looking vulnerable to a crisis, this Update looks at what happens to countries after... 18th June 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What would US rate cuts mean for Asia? Expectations that the US will soon start to cut interest rates have provided a boost to Asian currencies in recent weeks. But if we are right that slowing growth in the US and the escalating trade war... 18th June 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Philippines Current Account (Q1), Remittances (Apr.) The current account deficit of the Philippines widened again last quarter and is likely to remain a key source of vulnerability over the coming year. 17th June 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly BoK hints at rate cuts, tourism slumps in Sri Lanka Policymakers in Korea finally seem to be coming around to our view that rate cuts are needed to support the struggling economy after BoK Governor hinted that the central bank “must take appropriate... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea will struggle to reverse demographic decline The Korean government has made some welcome progress over recent years in encouraging more women into formal employment. But even if this trend continues, the size of the workforce in Korea looks set... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What impact will African Swine Fever have on EMs? African Swine Fever has already pushed inflation in China up markedly and, if the disease spreads further, it could also add around 0.3%-pts to inflation in parts of Asia and Eastern Europe. The... 13th June 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Weaker growth is here to stay With productivity slowing and working age populations set to start falling across most of Asia, we expect regional growth to slow to just 3.5% in a decade’s time. This compares with average growth of... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Valuations don’t make a compelling case for EM assets The valuations of EM assets are not particularly low, which is one reason why we expect EM financial markets to suffer along with those elsewhere as the global economy disappoints in the coming... 11th June 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia unlikely to cut rates, Thai PM returns Bank Indonesia has given further hints that it is preparing to cut interest rates, but given the poor outlook for the rupiah, we think the policy rate will remain unchanged this year. Meanwhile... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Where are sovereign default risks greatest? There is growing attention on sovereign debt risks in some EMs. Vulnerabilities seem to be most acute in Argentina as well as in some of the smaller economies in the Middle East and Africa such as... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What does the fall in oil prices mean for EMs? The $10pb fall in global oil prices over the past couple of weeks will improve the terms of trade for major EM oil importers, such as India, and will help to provide some relief for countries with... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
