Asia Economics Update Philippines: is the slowdown in remittances a concern? Remittance growth to the Philippines has slowed steadily over the past decade and looks set to remain subdued over the next few years. While weak remittance growth is likely to act as a drag on... 14th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What to make of the surge in EM FX bond sales? The rise in EM sovereign foreign currency bond sales this year has been concentrated in larger EMs with relatively strong balance sheets. We are more concerned about heavy foreign currency public debt... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will emerging markets outperform in the long-run? The broad tailwinds that lifted growth across the emerging world over the past two decades won’t be repeated and, as a result, GDP growth will be around two percentage points weaker over the next... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Narrowing EM external deficits reduce currency risks Current account deficits have started to narrow in many major EMs, most notably Turkey and Argentina, reducing the risk of large currency sell-offs. That said, there are a few countries, such as... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Feb.) Our Tracker suggests that overall EM capital outflows eased in February, mirroring the broader improvement in investor sentiment towards the emerging world. But more timely data indicate that this was... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly BSP governor hints at cuts, rising risk of Thai unrest An early rate cut in the Philippines is looking increasingly likely after the country’s new central bank governor, Benjamin Diokno, told a news conference on Friday that “given the decelerating... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Will emerging markets outperform in the long-run? The broad tailwinds that lifted growth across the emerging world over the past two decades won’t be repeated and, as a result, GDP growth will be around 2%-pts weaker over the next 20 years. Income... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Inflation to remain low, rates cuts coming Inflation across Emerging Asia has fallen back sharply in recent months and is likely to remain low over the coming quarters. With growth also set to slow, we expect some central banks to start... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will smaller EM Asian markets keep underperforming? Smaller stock markets in EM Asia have missed out on most of the big rally in global equities since around the turn of the year. But the characteristics that explain their relative weakness so far in... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rates on hold in Malaysia, but cuts are likely this year Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) today left interest rates unchanged, but with price pressures very weak and growth set to slow, we think that rate cuts will soon come onto the agenda. 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: chances of rate cuts strengthening February’s drop in inflation to within the target range, and the appointment of a dovish new central bank (BSP) governor, increases the chance of a rate cut next quarter. But the surprise pick of... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM inflation at post-financial crisis low EM inflation slowed to its weakest pace since the Global Financial Crisis in January and it will remain lower over the course of the year in most countries. This is likely to prompt policymakers to... 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) There were few positives in the February PMIs, with the headline readings pointing to another broad-based deterioration in regional manufacturing conditions. The chances of an improvement in the near... 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Upturn in EM manufacturing won’t be sustained The EM manufacturing PMI picked up last month, but we think that growth in the manufacturing sector will still slow in the coming months. 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Acceleration in growth unlikely to last Economic growth in Emerging Asia accelerated slightly last quarter, but we doubt this is the start of a sustained rebound. We expect growth to remain weak over the coming quarters. 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap External pressures keep frontiers in tightening mode The monetary tightening cycles that began last year in many of the large EMs are petering out fairly quickly. But in many of the smaller Frontier markets, interest rate hikes are still at the top of... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
