Asia Data Response Korea Labour Market (Jan.) January data suggest that a sharp minimum wage hike at the beginning of the year weighed on hiring, and is likely to depress job creation throughout 2019. The poor health of the labour market is set... 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Where to weather another storm in EM equities We think that the recent rebound in emerging market (EM) equities will prove temporary, as concerns about global growth intensify. We expect the healthcare and consumer staple sectors to be more... 11th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lessons from this week’s EM central bank meetings The fall in oil prices and shift in interest rate expectations in the US and Europe seem to have brought EM monetary tightening to an end. While most central banks aren’t in a rush to loosen policy... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Thai politics upended, central banks turn dovish The nomination of Princess Ubolratana Rajakanya Sirivadhana Varnavadi (sister of the current king) as a prime ministerial candidate in Thailand’s upcoming general election, has completely changed the... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: May interest rate cut looking more likely The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) left interest rates unchanged today, but with inflation set to continue falling back over the coming months, we think that the BSP will soon start to unwind... 7th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Scope for some EM rate cuts even if risk premia rise We expect EM risk premia to rise this year as global growth slows, something which has often been associated with EM central banks raising interest rates. But big currency falls and surges in... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Rally in EM local currency bonds likely to fizzle out This week’s flurry of EM central bank meetings will probably add to the signs that the shift towards tighter monetary policy in much of the emerging world is nearing an end. Even so, we doubt that the... 5th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing stumbles at the start of 2019 The sharp fall in the aggregate EM manufacturing PMI last month is consistent with a slowdown in industrial production growth to 2% y/y, from around 4% in 2018. This may be an early sign that EM... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Rebounding rupiah, Pakistan-IMF talks breakdown The continued rebound in the rupiah means that further interest rate hikes by Bank Indonesia (BI) are unlikely in the near term, but we think it is too early to call an end to the central bank’s... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) The January PMIs for Emerging Asia make for grim reading, with the headline number falling across the region. Meanwhile, the weakness in the new export orders component and a further slowdown in... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Slump in technology exports to weigh on Asian growth The slump in Asian exports late last year was mainly due to a sharp fall in demand for electronic products, which most likely reflects a turn in the sector’s inventory cycle. The poor prospects for... 30th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Slump in Asian industry drags down EM growth Aggregate EM growth slowed to its weakest pace in two years in the middle of Q4, and more timely data point to further weakness. We expect the slowdown to continue over the course of this year. 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Central banks sounding more dovish Following a flurry of interest rate hikes towards the end of last year, policymakers in Emerging Asia have struck a more dovish tone in recent weeks. The central banks of Indonesia, Korea and Malaysia... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM export weakness to continue in 2019 EM export growth slowed sharply in November and the early signs are that the December figures will be even worse. Some of this was due to falls in commodity prices. But much of the weakness appears to... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Revisiting EM debt risks The slowdown in the global economy has raised fresh concerns about rising EM debt levels. The risks posed by China’s credit boom are now well known, although mitigated by the nature of the lending... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Peace in Mindanao and a less hawkish Fed Peace in the restive southern province of Mindanao, the second biggest island in the Philippines, could lead to big economic gains for the island itself, but is unlikely to have much impact on overall... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
