Australia & New Zealand Economics Update How would fuel rationing affect Australia’s economy? Australia’s supply of petroleum products will dwindle over the coming weeks, which could prompt the government to impose fuel rationing. It seems likely that any restrictions will initially target... 1st April 2026 · 3 mins read
RBI Watch Low inflation buys the RBI time, but FX concerns grow A limited inflationary impact from the surge in energy prices so far should enable the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to keep the repo rate on hold at 5.25% at the conclusion of the MPC meeting on... 1st April 2026 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ won’t spring into action just yet Financial markets are betting that the RBNZ will deliver its first rate hike in Q3, with aggressive tightening to follow thereafter. However, we suspect they are getting ahead of themselves, not least... 1st April 2026 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australian housing market poised for a downturn Australian house prices have lost some momentum in recent months. With the Reserve Bank of Australia set to hike rates to 4.60% in the coming months, we think house prices will fall outright before... 1st April 2026 · 4 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Tankan (Q1 26) The Tankan survey showed that firms are shrugging off the energy shock caused by the Iran war, which should encourage the BoJ to hike rates at this month’s meeting. 1st April 2026 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Mar. 26) China’s growth picked up at the start of the year, thanks to a boost from stronger fiscal spending and exports. This year’s Budget suggests that this fiscal support won't last. As a net energy... 31st March 2026 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Update What are the potential implications of Houthi Attacks? While the direct effect of renewed strikes on shipping in the Red Sea on aggregate world trade is likely to be limited, the impact on Asian economies that rely more heavily on oil imports from Saudi... 31st March 2026 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Are generous cash handouts the answer to low fertility? There is some evidence that generous cash subsidies to new parents have lifted the fertility rate in Korea. But it is not clear whether similar policies would have the same impact in countries where... 31st March 2026 · 6 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Mar. 2026) The decline in the RatingDog manufacturing PMI for March partially offsets the strength in the official survey data. But the big picture remains that, despite rising price pressures, the Iran War has... 31st March 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Activity & Labour Market (Feb. 26), Tokyo CPI (Mar. 26) The February activity data show that Japan’s economy approached the Iran war with solid momentum and with inflation unlikely to surge, we expect any hit to activity from higher energy costs to be... 31st March 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Mar. 2026) Our measure of EM capital flows points to larger outflows from emerging market assets since the start of the Middle East conflict than during the height of the pandemic. EM external positions are... 30th March 2026 · 0 mins read
Capital Daily Markets’ pain intensifies; fiscal and inflation risks up next? The war’s effects on markets may continue to elude an easy solve, but at least investors aren’t too concerned, yet, about fiscal and inflation risks. 30th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Focus Government’s interest revenue will surpass payments The interest receipts of Japan’s government have risen faster than its interest payments in recent years and we think that will continue even as the 10-year JGB yield has climbed to a 29-year high. In... 30th March 2026 · 10 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Fiscal boost drives new year recovery Our China Activity Proxy suggests that economic activity picked up at the start of the year on the back of stronger fiscal spending and export growth. But the Budget for this year implies that the... 27th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Q&A: the oil supply chain from the Middle East This Update considers the broader implications of the Middle East war on the crude oil and petroleum product supply chain from the Middle East onwards. At the very end of the supply chain, Oceania and... 27th March 2026 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Economic hit from Iran War has been limited so far Early evidence supports our view that China’s economy will be resilient to higher global energy prices. Regulators have moved to shield most firms and households from the brunt of the increase in... 27th March 2026 · 5 mins read
