Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Soft labour market data won’t keep RBA from hiking

When the Reserve Bank of Australia left rates on hold this week, it clearly signalled that it has a tightening bias. Although the weak November jobs report complicates the outlook somewhat, we suspect...

12th December 2025 · 5 mins read

Bank of Japan Watch

BoJ will lift rates to 1.75% by 2027

The Bank of Japan will almost certainly lift its policy rate to 0.75% at its upcoming meeting. And while government subsidies will push headline inflation below 2% next year, the strength of...

12th December 2025 · 8 mins read

China Economics Update

CEWC signals limited stimulus but some rebalancing

The readout from China’s Central Economic Work Conference suggests that monetary and fiscal policy will remain supportive next year but that any additional easing will be modest. Instead, the focus...

11th December 2025 · 4 mins read

Asia Rapid Response

Philippines Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.)

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) lowered its reverse repo rate by a further 25bps today (to 4.50%) and, with the ongoing corruption scandal likely to continue to weigh on economic activity over...

11th December 2025 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Labour Market (Nov. 2025)

Although the weak November jobs report muddies the waters for the RBA, there are few indications that the labour market is falling off a cliff. Given its concerns about inflation persistence, we still...

11th December 2025 · 2 mins read

India Economics Update

GDP rebasing could push India above Japan

On our current forecasts, India is on course to overtake Japan as the world’s fourth-largest economy in 2027. But there is a decent chance that the upcoming rebasing of India’s national accounts data...

10th December 2025 · 3 mins read

China Rapid Response

China Consumer & Producer Prices (Nov. 2025)

Consumer price inflation rose to its highest level since China’s reopening from zero-COVID (excluding volatility around Lunar New Year), but this was the result of a weather-related rise in food...

10th December 2025 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook

RBA set to reverse course on rate cuts in 2026

The RBA is poised to join the rather exclusive club of advanced economy central banks that tightens policy in 2026. With growth accelerating when there’s little to no spare capacity and the labour...

10th December 2025 · 20 mins read

Asia Economics Update

Thailand-Cambodia conflict: assessing the fallout

The economic fallout from renewed border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia should remain modest. Trade between the two countries is small, and Thailand’s tourism sector should be insulated given...

9th December 2025 · 3 mins read

India Economic Outlook

Economy to cool, but outperformance to continue

After a very strong 2025, economic growth in India is likely to slow in 2026 and 2027 in the face of punitive US tariffs. But they could get rolled back and, even if they don’t, India will remain a...

9th December 2025 · 17 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBA will lift rates to 4.10% by mid-2026

The RBA sounded concerned about upside risks to inflation when it left its policy rate unchanged today and we now believe that its next move will be a rate hike as soon as February.

9th December 2025 · 3 mins read

China Economics Update

Trump eases the hardware bottlenecks on Chinese AI

China’s leadership has spurned Nvidia’s knee-capped H20 chips. But it may be willing to let its firms buy the more powerful H200 chips that President Trump is now offering. This would allow China to...

9th December 2025 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Dec. 2025)

The RBA sounded concerned about upside risks to inflation when it left its policy rate unchanged today and we now believe that its next move will be rate hike.

9th December 2025 · 2 mins read

China Economics Update

Politburo signals further easing in 2026

The readout from today’s Politburo meeting strikes a relatively dovish tone, suggesting that more fiscal support and monetary easing is on the cards next year. The leadership continues to highlight...

8th December 2025 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

FOMC on deck; JGBs under siege

As the final round of G10 central bank policy meetings for the year kicks off, the emerging theme is divergence. That applies to both the immediate policy decisions and, more importantly, to the...

8th December 2025 · 5 mins read