Japan Rapid Response

Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (June 24)

31st July 2024 · 2 mins read

Global Economics Update

Latest thoughts on r* and where rates end this cycle

In detailed analysis last year, we concluded that equilibrium nominal interest rates would settle at between 3% and 4% in advanced economies in the next ten years. We maintain that opinion and in fact...

30th July 2024 (Updated 12th December 2024) · 5 mins read

China Activity Monitor

CAP: Growth faltering as domestic weakness persists

Our China Activity Proxy suggests that the economy has lost some steam recently with weak domestic demand weighing on activity. Alongside recent rate cuts, policymakers have signalled that fiscal...

30th July 2024 · 4 mins read

China Rapid Response

China Politburo Meeting (Jul. 2024)

The readout of the Politburo’s latest triannual meeting on economic affairs has just been published by state media. It was dovish in tone and adds to recent evidence that the leadership believes more...

30th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan Labour Market (June)

The conundrum of low unemployment despite falling job openings continued in June and we expect the labour market to keep treading water over coming months.

30th July 2024 · 1 min read

Asia Rapid Response

Further easing on the cards

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) lowered its policy rate by 100bps today, and further easing is likely later in the year. Today’s cut marks the second consecutive meeting where the central bank has...

29th July 2024 · 2 mins read

FX Markets Weekly Wrap

Dollar keeps calm, carry trade unwinds

At face value, the US dollar remains in something of a lull: the DXY Index is on track to end the week roughly where it ended the previous two. But that apparent stability belies the significant moves...

26th July 2024 · 6 mins read

Capital Daily

Carry trade trouble need not pop the equity bubble

Despite the possibility that the unwinding of the yen “carry trade” has amplified the global stock market sell-off lately, we think equity prices could rebound even if the yen continued to strengthen.

26th July 2024 · 5 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Monetary and fiscal policy turning more supportive

Policymakers’ concerns about the near-term outlook have become much more visible over the past couple of weeks, with weak Q2 growth and poor stock market performance triggering rate cuts and talk of...

26th July 2024 · 7 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Korean weakness, CBSL rate cut, Vietnam uncertainty

The Korean GDP data published earlier this week highlighted how unbalanced the economy has been since the pandemic. Exports have been very strong, but domestic demand has struggled. Meanwhile, Sri...

26th July 2024 · 8 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Modi gets the memo on employment

The FY24/25 Union Budget this week showed a shift in the government's focus towards improving employment, likely in response to the BJP's underwhelming performance in the general election. While a...

26th July 2024 · 3 mins read

Global Markets Update

Scepticism warranted on China’s capital market reforms

We think the capital market reforms announced as part of China’s Third Plenum won’t be enough to reinvigorate China’s equities, which we think will provide disappointing long-run returns.

26th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Services inflation slowing but broadening

The data released this week on balance increase the risk that the Bank of Japan leaves interest rates unchanged next week. While household disposable income jumped in Q1, that reflected a one-off...

26th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Global Markets Update

India’s budget no boon for the country’s bonds & stocks

Strong public investment growth alongside overall fiscal prudence have contributed to the rallies in India’s bond and stock markets over the past couple of years. However, we don’t see much in the...

26th July 2024 · 5 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Antipodean central banks to part ways on policy

A new survey of businesses shows that New Zealand's retail industry is in dire straits. Given the sizeable contribution of retail trade to employment, the risk is that the labour market will...

26th July 2024 · 5 mins read