India Economics Weekly BJP faces no-confidence vote, July inflation surge The no-confidence vote that has been triggered against Prime Minister Modi's BJP is highly unlikely to lead to the fall of the government given the BJP's sizeable parliamentary majority. But it may... 28th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Taiwan GDP (Q2) Taiwan’s economy rebounded strongly in the second quarter of the year, driven by a jump in exports and strong consumer spending. However, we don’t think the recovery will last – we expect growth to... 28th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Yield Curve Control is effectively over The Bank of Japan announced today that it will allow 10-year yields to rise above the 0.5% ceiling – which it says it is retaining – to a new “just-in-case” cap of 1.0%. With signs mounting of a... 28th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Nascent virtuous cycle raises risk of policy tightening Inflation continues to run well ahead of wage growth and we're sticking to our forecast that the resulting fall in real incomes will force consumers to tighten their belts over the coming months. With... 28th July 2023 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia confronts its rental crisis Although Q2 CPI data for Australia were softer than most had expected, rental inflation continued to accelerate. Moreover, leading indicators suggest that rental inflation likely won't peak before... 28th July 2023 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Jun.) The sharp decline in retail sales in June suggests that sales volumes fell for a third consecutive quarter in Q2. With the RBA sounding increasingly concerned about the outlook for household spending... 28th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Tokyo Consumer Prices (Jul. 2023) Headline inflation was unchanged in Tokyo this month, but a jump in services inflation helped power a renewed increase in underlying inflation. That in turn, reflected large increases in mobile phone... 28th July 2023 · 2 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Recovery goes into reverse Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that China’s economy contracted in June as the service sector spluttered. Policy support means the economy should return to growth before long. But the pace of... 27th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Core inflation still far lower than elsewhere Comparing the proper inflation gauges reveals that core inflation in Japan remains far lower than elsewhere. And with most of the recent pick-up in core inflation reflecting soaring imports costs, the... 26th July 2023 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA will deliver at least one more 25bp hike With inflation weakening faster than the Reserve Bank of Australia has anticipated, the Bank may well conclude that it has tightened policy enough to return inflation to target. However, with the... 26th July 2023 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (Jun./Q2 2023) 26th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Jun.) Global steel production growth picked up in June, albeit only to a pace consistent with stagnant growth. With the rise in output in China on shaky ground and weak demand beginning to weigh on supply... 25th July 2023 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update Investment growth entering a softer patch Investment held up well in the first half of the year but the recent moderation in credit growth and the messages from the latest survey data suggest that it is going to enter a softer patch over the... 25th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: GDP data worse than it looks GDP growth in Korea rebounded in the second quarter, but the data was far worse than it looks, with all of the major sub-components contracting. With weak global demand set to drag on exports and high... 25th July 2023 · 3 mins read
