China Economics Update China and Japanification: How great is the risk? China is not suffering a balance sheet recession: most private firms are not highly indebted and would borrow if they had more confidence in the economic outlook. But there are other parallels with... 24th July 2023 · 4 mins read
China Rapid Response Politburo Meeting (Jul. 23) The readout of the Politburo’s quarterly meeting on economic affairs has just been published by state media. It struck a dovish tone but fell short of delivering any major new announcements. 24th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Focus Japan is not on the cusp of a lasting turnaround Japan bulls have proposed a range of explanations to justify the outperformance of the TOPIX relative to other equity indices over recent months. While there are some signs that firms are enjoying... 24th July 2023 · 18 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Emerging Asia Chart Pack (July 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 24th July 2023 · 1 min read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Flash PMIs (Jul. 2023) July’s flash PMI readings suggest manufacturers continue to struggle while the services sector remains resilient. And while manufacturing output prices inched up, the sizeable fall since the high last... 24th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily JPY & MXN: trading places We expect the fortunes of the Japanese yen and Mexican peso – which have both been outliers in different ways lately – to soon reverse, as souring risk appetite unwinds some “carry trade” and their... 21st July 2023 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly How will the rice export ban affect the economy? The partial ban on rice exports announced this week will have a small impact on India's trade balance and, similarly, it is unlikely to reduce inflation much either. The bigger concern for... 21st July 2023 · 3 mins read
China Economics Weekly Reviving private investment and hiring won’t be easy After making life more difficult for many private firms in recent years, China’s leadership is shifting course and has made high-level pledges to improve the business environment. But although parts... 21st July 2023 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Economic weakness to continue into H2 A few places have already published second quarter GDP figures, and the rest of the region will follow over the coming weeks. Although the data are likely to show GDP growth picked up in around half... 21st July 2023 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly New Zealand inflation will remain higher for longer The fall in New Zealand’s headline inflation rate in Q2 largely reflected base effects, with underlying price pressures remaining strong. Accordingly, we think inflation will return to the RBNZ’s... 21st July 2023 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Budget deficit will be larger than we had thought While the ratio of tax revenue to GDP last year was the highest it has been since the 1980s, growth in tax revenue has been weaker in recent months than we had anticipated despite strong growth in the... 21st July 2023 · 4 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Yield Curve Control won’t be tweaked At the upcoming meeting, the Bank of Japan will revise up its inflation forecasts amid early signs of stronger wage pressures. While that could open the door for a further widening of the tolerance... 21st July 2023 · 9 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (Jun. 2023) Electricity tariff hikes that went into effect last month led to a rise in headline inflation. However, underlying inflation fell as was the case in Tokyo, for the first time in more than a year. Over... 21st July 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Jun. 2023) With the labour market still running red hot, we think the Reserve Bank of Australia has more work to do. Accordingly, we’re sticking with our forecast that the RBA will lift its cash rate to 4.60% by... 20th July 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan External Trade (Jun. 2023) The trade deficit narrowed in June as export values rose faster than import values, largely reflecting the faster fall in import prices. Export climate readings suggest export volume growth will fall... 20th July 2023 · 2 mins read
