Capital Daily

What to make of turnaround Tuesday in Tokyo

Sentiment has improved in Asian markets today, especially in Japan where equities have rallied very strongly. We think there are a few observations worth noting of relevance for global markets.

6th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

With RBA remaining hawkish, rate cuts will have to wait

Although the RBA left rates on hold today, it poured cold water on market expectations that it will loosen policy later this year. With the economy still running above its speed limit, we continue to...

6th August 2024 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting (Aug. 2024)

6th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Japan Economics Update

FX intervention to weaken yen unlikely

Japan’s government has intervened in the FX markets to weaken the yen far more often than to strengthen it. But FX interventions have become very rare over the past two decades and our sense is that...

6th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Japan Rapid Response

Japan Labour Cash Earnings (June 24)

The enormous rise in labour cash earnings in June was mostly driven by a jump in summer bonus that won’t be sustained, but the figures clearly point to another BoJ rate hike later this year if the...

6th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Asia Economics Update

Bangladesh: the economic fallout from the unrest

The outbreak of political violence and the sudden resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has rocked Bangladesh today. But provided that peace and stability is restored relatively soon, the...

5th August 2024 · 3 mins read

Global Markets Update

This feels less like 2000 than 1998, and even then …

We doubt the AI-fuelled rally in global equities has burst, despite a rout in the stock market in the US after some disappointing data there last week and a plunge in Asian indices today. It feels...

5th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Two questions (and answers) on today’s Asian market drama

The yen surged today, and some Asian equity indices plunged, as investors worried about a “hard landing” in the US economy. We think there are two key questions to consider.

5th August 2024 · 5 mins read

Asia Rapid Response

Indonesia GDP (Q2, 2024)

The national accounts data released today suggest that economic growth remained broadly stable last quarter, but we don’t have much faith in the official data. With economic activity set to weaken in...

5th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Japan Economics Focus

Rental growth will continue to lag income growth

While faster wage growth should eventually result in a significant pick-up in rental inflation, it seems likely that rental growth will trail income growth for the foreseeable future. That means that...

5th August 2024 · 9 mins read

FX Markets Chart Pack

FX Markets Chart Pack (Jul. 2024)

The US dollar has remained rangebound against most other major currencies in July, even as expected interest rates have fallen sharply in the US in the wake of softer inflation and employment data...

2nd August 2024 · 1 min read

China Chart Pack

China Chart Pack (Jul. 24)

Our China Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. China’s economy has slowed recently but we think it will regain some momentum during the second half...

2nd August 2024 · 1 min read

China Economics Weekly

Investment still the preferred policy lever to pull

We wouldn’t take this week’s pledge from the Politburo to tilt stimulus towards consumption at face value. The only concrete measures along these lines that have been announced recently have been more...

2nd August 2024 · 5 mins read

China Economics Update

Urbanisation won’t be a key growth driver

In its new urbanisation plan, China’s government is setting its targets low. The goal of reaching a 70% urbanisation rate in five years’ time could be met with far smaller increases in the urban...

2nd August 2024 · 4 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Korea growth worries, new Taiwan GDP forecast

The latest batch of data from Korea underline how much the economy has struggled in recent months. Despite the weak economy, the jump in inflation last month has dashed any hopes of a rate cut at the...

2nd August 2024 · 7 mins read