China Economics Update What's happening to China's commodity demand? The recent import data suggest that China’s demand for industrial metals and for oil has levelled out this year after a sharp rebound in 2009. This is consistent with other evidence that China’s... 23rd August 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Oil prices still set to drag on Russian recovery We have nudged up our forecast for Russian growth and the ruble for this year, partly in response to an upward revision to our profile for oil prices. But the bigger picture is that we still expect... 10th March 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Oil prices still set to drop back in the second half The fact that oil prices have remained firm despite the appreciation in the dollar has prompted us to raise our end-2010 and end-2011 forecasts from $50 per barrel (pb) to $60pb. But these numbers are... 10th March 2010 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Oil prices to fall back to $50pb by end-2010 The current pick-up in headline inflation in the major economies is largely due to adverse base effects in energy prices. These base effects will fade soon even if oil prices now simply level out at... 16th December 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Does it matter which currency oil is priced in? The re-pricing of oil in some unit other than the dollar should, on its own, have no direct effect on the value of the US currency. It might accelerate the rebalancing of official reserves away from... 12th October 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Gas is too cheap relative to oil We expect further falls in US natural gas prices in the near term. However, the incentive for end-users to substitute gas for oil has rarely been higher, which will eventually feed through to higher... 20th August 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How credible is OPEC's new oil price target? OPEC’s informal target of $75-80 per barrel (pb) might be a reasonable starting point for an assumption about the medium-term outlook for oil prices, but it is certainly not the last word. Our view is... 28th May 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for oil prices? Many of the most enthusiastic cheerleaders for the commodity bubble have recently slashed their oil price forecasts. We are still happy with our long-held view that crude will average $50 per barrel... 12th December 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How low could oil prices go? Oil prices have fallen to within a whisker of our target of $50 per barrel (for Brent), which we had expected to see in the first quarter of next year. For now we are leaving our forecast for average... 13th November 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update OPEC cuts, but markets take little notice Today’s sharp fall in oil prices, despite the announcement that OPEC will cut production by 1.5 million barrels per day from 1st November, reinforces our view that prices will continue to decline even... 24th October 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update OPEC output cuts to provide limited support for oil prices The collapse in oil prices in recent days has likely sent OPEC into a panic. The oil-producing cartel has advanced the timing of its “extraordinary” meeting from the 18th November to next Friday... 17th October 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Will falling oil prices halt Russia's boom? We now expect real GDP growth in Russia to slow to 5% next year. But contrary to popular belief, this will not be driven by a fall in oil prices, which we now expect to fall to around $70pb over the... 10th October 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Gold fails to shine as oil prices return to earth The continued decline in oil prices and today’s lacklustre response in gold prices to the crisis on Wall Street underlines our view that the bull market in both commodities is over. 15th September 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update OPEC to hold official quotas, trim production OPEC will likely leave its official quotas on hold at its meeting on Tuesday, even though it may try to cut actual production in the coming months. Nonetheless, we do not think this will be enough to... 5th September 2008 · 1 min read
