Commodities Update Three Iran scenarios for the oil price The main driver of global oil prices so far this year has been concern about the potential disruption to supplies from the Middle East as a result of tensions with Iran. This Update looks at three... 12th January 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What’s really behind the rewidening of the Brent-WTI spread? Most analysts attribute the renewed increase in the differential between the prices of Brent crude and WTI over the last few days primarily to changes in the composition of the two major commodity... 12th January 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update "Tail risks" to oil prices still skewed to the downside The two greatest “tail risks” to oil prices this year are an escalation of tensions between Iran and the West (on the upside) and a worsening of the crisis in the euro-zone (on the downside). In... 5th January 2012 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack US stock market resilience unlikely to last The US stock market recovered some poise in December. But while we do not expect equity prices to collapse in 2012, we think there are three reasons why they may continue to languish – our end-year... 4th January 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack More rollercoaster than super-cycle Commodity prices are ending 2011 with a whimper. Over the year as a whole the only major commodities to show significant increases are Brent crude and gold. Most components of the closely-watched S&P... 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Two painful lessons for commodity investors from 2011 This year’s sizeable falls in most commodity prices have highlighted two points that have actually been clear for much longer but are still not yet acknowledged by many commentators. First, even if... 20th December 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update OPEC’s quota hike all but irrelevant to oil price outlook OPEC’s decision today to raise the official target for the cartel’s oil output to close to the current level of production will make no real difference on the ground, especially as it reportedly did... 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus The GCC’s fiscal plans may prove unsustainable This year’s fiscal stimulus packages in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have increased the risk of a spending squeeze in the next 10 to 20 years. Admittedly, enormous foreign currency... 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update OPEC sidelined as global slowdown offsets fears over Iran The regular OPEC meeting on 14th December will be overshadowed by the crisis in the euro-zone and tensions with Iran. Our oil price forecasts give more weight to the fall-out from a further escalation... 9th December 2011 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack A chink of light at the end of a torrid month Growing stresses in the banking system fuelled by an escalation of the euro-zone crisis prompted the major central banks to announce measures aimed at enhancing their capacity to provide liquidity... 2nd December 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Markets clutching at straws Commodity prices ended November little changed, thanks to the technical rebound in WTI and the recovery in risk assets generally late in the month. The markets have taken the view that the cut in the... 2nd December 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brent-WTI spread returning to reality The gap between the cost of Brent crude and the traditional US benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), is finally closing, but the episode has been another example of how speculative pressures can... 17th November 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Can China's demand offset the impact of the euro crisis? The consensus view is that continued buoyant demand from China will prevent the prices of industrial commodities, such as crude oil and copper, from falling very far, despite the worsening financial... 16th November 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia's new oil tax: radical reform or damp squib? The relative stagnation in Russian oil production over the past few years has long been a concern for policymakers. However, it seems unlikely that the new, more favourable, tax regime for Russian oil... 16th November 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How much might conflict with Iran add to oil prices? The price of a barrel of Brent could spike from current levels of around $114 to anywhere between $135 and $210 in the unlikely event of a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities by the US or... 14th November 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Fragile recovery already faltering The recovery in most commodity prices in October now seems like ancient history. The hopes generated by the apparent pick-up in Chinese demand, renewed talk of a third round of quantitative easing... 1st November 2011 · 1 min read
