Global Markets Update Does it matter which currency oil is priced in? The re-pricing of oil in some unit other than the dollar should, on its own, have no direct effect on the value of the US currency. It might accelerate the rebalancing of official reserves away from... 12th October 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Gas is too cheap relative to oil We expect further falls in US natural gas prices in the near term. However, the incentive for end-users to substitute gas for oil has rarely been higher, which will eventually feed through to higher... 20th August 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How credible is OPEC's new oil price target? OPEC’s informal target of $75-80 per barrel (pb) might be a reasonable starting point for an assumption about the medium-term outlook for oil prices, but it is certainly not the last word. Our view is... 28th May 2009 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for oil prices? Many of the most enthusiastic cheerleaders for the commodity bubble have recently slashed their oil price forecasts. We are still happy with our long-held view that crude will average $50 per barrel... 12th December 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How low could oil prices go? Oil prices have fallen to within a whisker of our target of $50 per barrel (for Brent), which we had expected to see in the first quarter of next year. For now we are leaving our forecast for average... 13th November 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update OPEC cuts, but markets take little notice Today’s sharp fall in oil prices, despite the announcement that OPEC will cut production by 1.5 million barrels per day from 1st November, reinforces our view that prices will continue to decline even... 24th October 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update OPEC output cuts to provide limited support for oil prices The collapse in oil prices in recent days has likely sent OPEC into a panic. The oil-producing cartel has advanced the timing of its “extraordinary” meeting from the 18th November to next Friday... 17th October 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Will falling oil prices halt Russia's boom? We now expect real GDP growth in Russia to slow to 5% next year. But contrary to popular belief, this will not be driven by a fall in oil prices, which we now expect to fall to around $70pb over the... 10th October 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Gold fails to shine as oil prices return to earth The continued decline in oil prices and today’s lacklustre response in gold prices to the crisis on Wall Street underlines our view that the bull market in both commodities is over. 15th September 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update OPEC to hold official quotas, trim production OPEC will likely leave its official quotas on hold at its meeting on Tuesday, even though it may try to cut actual production in the coming months. Nonetheless, we do not think this will be enough to... 5th September 2008 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Have record oil prices hit Russian manufacturing? Economic theory suggests that a booming energy sector can often cause a slump in manufacturing output. In Russia’s case, the evidence from recent years is mixed. But even if oil prices do continue to... 29th July 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Can speculation drive up oil prices without a rise in inventories? Contrary to the conventional wisdom, the absence of a build-up of crude oil inventories does not rule out the possibility that speculation has been helping to drive up oil prices. 23rd July 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Where next for Chinese fuel prices? Even after Thursday’s hike, China’s retail prices for refined fuels are well below those in international markets. However, that probably won’t be the case for much longer – either global oil prices... 25th June 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Easing inflation concerns behind Chinese fuel price hike China’s decision to hike fuel prices confirms that domestic concerns over inflation are easing. What’s more, the move could help to cap global oil prices. 19th June 2008 · 1 min read
