Emerging Europe Economics Focus Have record oil prices hit Russian manufacturing? Economic theory suggests that a booming energy sector can often cause a slump in manufacturing output. In Russia’s case, the evidence from recent years is mixed. But even if oil prices do continue to... 29th July 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Can speculation drive up oil prices without a rise in inventories? Contrary to the conventional wisdom, the absence of a build-up of crude oil inventories does not rule out the possibility that speculation has been helping to drive up oil prices. 23rd July 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Where next for Chinese fuel prices? Even after Thursday’s hike, China’s retail prices for refined fuels are well below those in international markets. However, that probably won’t be the case for much longer – either global oil prices... 25th June 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Easing inflation concerns behind Chinese fuel price hike China’s decision to hike fuel prices confirms that domestic concerns over inflation are easing. What’s more, the move could help to cap global oil prices. 19th June 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Latest oil price spike looks like a bubble about to burst Friday’s $11 jump in the price of a barrel of crude provides the clearest evidence yet that the oil market is increasingly detached from fundamentals. We are raising our assumptions for the future... 9th June 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Will China's fuel subsidies be the next to go? High oil prices have forced a number of Asian countries to reform their fuel subsidy programmes in the last couple of weeks. China is by far the largest oil consumer in the region and matters far more... 5th June 2008 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Will China’s fuel subsidies be the next to go? High oil prices have forced a number of Asian countries to reform their fuel subsidy programmes in the last couple of weeks. China is by far the largest oil consumer in the region and matters far more... 5th June 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Oil’s fiscal benefits dwarfed by threat of economic downturn The latest surge in the oil price to $130 per barrel (pb) looks set to have mixed implications for the public finances. On the positive side, the higher level of prices should provide the Government... 29th May 2008 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: more tightening in the pipeline Indonesia’s latest round of fuel price hikes was designed to safeguard fiscal sustainability and is therefore positive in the long run. However, a worsening near-term inflation outlook is likely to... 28th May 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Policy changes to dampen Asian demand for oil The trend among Asian countries towards cutting fuel subsidies will increase the sensitivity of demand to higher global oil prices and make it less likely that the recent surge in the cost of crude... 23rd May 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is gold now too cheap relative to oil? The fact that the ratio of gold prices to oil prices is now well below its long-run average is often used to argue that gold must be significantly under-valued. We disagree, for three reasons. 14th May 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Falling dollar obscures weakening oil market fundamentals Developments in the dollar are likely to dominate oil price movements in the short-term and could even drag Brent crude as high as $125 per barrel (pb) this quarter. Nevertheless, with a recovery of... 22nd April 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Oil fundamentals will bring prices back down to earth Speculative pressure can only push oil prices so far before fundamental demand and supply conditions reassert themselves, leading to a potentially sharp correction. We expect (Brent) crude oil prices... 19th March 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Winter delays the easing of oil prices, for now Concerns about supply and strong winter demand have pushed Brent crude back above $95 per barrel (pb). However, the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) downward revision to demand forecasts and... 15th February 2008 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for oil and gold? Despite the latest spikes in both, we are sticking with our end-2008 forecasts of $75pb for the price of Brent crude and $850/oz for gold. There are good reasons not to get carried away in either... 3rd January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Surging oil price won't stop interest rates falling a long way The rise in the oil price close to, and briefly through, the $100 per barrel level has prompted renewed concern over inflation. But the equally worrying implications for activity suggest that the... 3rd January 2008 · 1 min read
