Latin America Economics Update Fall in oil prices pushes Venezuela even closer to default The writing is on the wall for Venezuela as falling oil prices exacerbate severe strains in the balance of payments. Both the government’s ability and willingness to service its foreign currency debt... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Market response to OPEC inaction shows cheaper oil here to stay It was no great surprise that OPEC left its output target unchanged today, so the fact that global oil prices still took another large tumble towards our long-held forecast of $70 per barrel... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf set to resist pressure to cut oil output Comments ahead of today’s OPEC meeting, playing down calls for a cut in the cartel’s output target, suggest that the Gulf States aren’t too alarmed by the recent slide in oil prices. Indeed, Saudi... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Lower oil prices will hit growth of fledgling LNG industry The impact of lower oil prices will be reflected in global oil-indexed gas prices in coming months. This will put pressure on the profitability of upcoming higher-cost LNG projects, most of which are... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Iran nuclear deal pushed back until June The extension of the talks between Western powers and Iran over its nuclear programme doesn’t come as a surprise. Nonetheless, lower oil prices should increase the pressure on Tehran to reach a deal... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Currencies continue to lose ground Most of the region’s currencies have continued to depreciate against the US dollar so far this month, extending a period of weakness that began back in August. Looking ahead, while we think that the... 24th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will lower oil prices end Norway’s long boom? Norway has been one of the strongest growing economies of the developed world over the last decade. But with households buckling under high debt burdens and lower oil prices set to exacerbate the... 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update PMIs point to subdued commodity demand Falls in the flash PMIs for China and the euro-zone do not bode well for commodity prices. Activity indicators were weak in both regions, suggesting downward pressure on the prices of industrial... 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Will lower oil prices end Norway’s long boom? Norway has been one of the strongest growing economies of the developed world over the last decade. But with households buckling under high debt burdens and lower oil prices set to exacerbate the... 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Keystone XL delayed again, but likely to be approved next year Despite rejection yesterday, the Keystone export limited (XL) pipeline is likely to be approved early next year when the Republicans take control of the Senate. Eventually this should add to the... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oil sector a drag on Saudi economy in Q3 Our GDP Tracker suggests that growth in Saudi Arabia’s economy stabilised in Q3. The oil sector was a drag on the economy, but this was offset by stronger growth in the non-oil sector. Going forward... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Falling oil prices to tip the euro-zone into deflation The recent drop in oil prices looks set to tip euro-zone CPI inflation into negative territory over the coming months, increasing the risk of a prolonged and damaging bout of deflation. 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Can OPEC keep prices from falling further? The next meeting of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), on 27 th November, should be the most interesting since the change from individual quotas to a group target in early... 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How will Saudi Arabia respond to the fall in oil prices? Saudi Arabia is likely to resist pressure from other OPEC members to cut oil output in an effort to arrest the recent slide in prices. After all, the Saudi economy is in a stronger position to... 17th November 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf dollar pegs under little threat from lower oil prices The sharp fall in oil prices in recent months has led some to call into question the sustainability of the Gulf’s dollar pegs. However, we think the risk of currency devaluation is relatively small. 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brent heading for $70 The dip in the price of Brent below $80 per barrel in the last 24 hours is consistent with our long-held view that the world will soon be awash with oil. Indeed, global oil prices look set to hit $70... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
