Emerging Europe Economics Update Oil price slump raises deflation danger The sharp fall in oil prices over the past couple of months will keep inflation across Central and South Eastern Europe extremely weak and could push several economies deeper into deflation... 29th October 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia: weakness in oil sector set to continue Growth in the Saudi Arabian economy appears to have stabilised in Q3, as a pick-up in activity in the non-oil sector offset a further slowdown in the oil sector. But in spite of the relative strength... 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble crisis points to larger-than-expected rate hikes The continued slide in the ruble over the past few weeks has raised the prospect that Russia is in the grip of a self-fulfilling currency crisis in which the mere anticipation of currency weakness... 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Falls in oil prices not enough to cut output We doubt that the recent fall in oil prices will have a significant impact on oil production over the next few years. The vast majority of global oil production, including US shale oil, is still... 27th October 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa outperforms struggling SSA markets Concerns about the strength of the global economy, alongside a number of other factors, have weighed on Africa’s financial markets over the past month. Amid the gloom, South Africa’s markets have been... 27th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Renewed weakness in Germany hits Central Europe The past month has brought further evidence of weaker growth in Central Europe. Admittedly, August’s particularly disappointing data appear to have been distorted by variations in summer holidays. And... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Restructuring petro-loans won’t save Venezuela from default On the face of it, the Venezuelan government’s restructuring of petro-loans from China should boost foreign currency revenues and ease the economy’s severe dollar drought. But in reality, the deal... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Low oil prices provide relief for MENA’s resource-poor economies In contrast to the Gulf, the rest of the MENA region stands to gain from the recent fall in oil prices. That being said, a period of low oil prices alone won’t be sufficient to reduce these economies’... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Low EM inflation set to persist Inflation eased further in September across most of the emerging world, in aggregate reaching its lowest rate in nearly five years. Falling commodity prices and weak underlying price pressures mean... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Falling commodity prices not enough to pull SA’s inflation down Recent movements in commodity prices are unlikely to be enough to lower inflation in South Africa substantially. Indeed, exchange rate weakness and upcoming energy price hikes will put further upward... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Lower fuel subsidies to dampen oil demand growth The recent sharp fall in oil prices should make it easier for governments in developing countries to reduce oil subsidies without dramatically increasing inflation. Meanwhile, a reduction in oil... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update PMIs provide little support to commodities prices While China’s headline flash PMI rose in October, falls in the activity and new orders components do not bode well for commodities prices. Meanwhile, the euro-zone’s flash PMI suggests the region... 23rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Equities in the Gulf hit by falling oil prices Despite recovering a little in recent days, it’s been a torrid month for stock markets across the MENA region. In part, this has reflected the broader sell-off in EM financial markets. But in the Gulf... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Gulf: Fall in oil prices unlikely to trigger another “lost decade” Concerns that the recent fall in oil prices could lead to another “lost decade” for the Gulf, similar to the 1980s, are probably overdone. The region’s large accumulated savings mean that most... 21st October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus How and why lower oil prices matter for Russia’s economy The fall in oil prices over the past month or so poses another headwind for Russia’s struggling economy. The drop in prices so far is unlikely to have a major bearing on the immediate outlook –... 20th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Time to look again at commodities The hype about a supposed “super-cycle” at the start of the decade has been replaced by fears of a prolonged period of “secular stagnation” in commodity prices. As usual, the reality lies somewhere in... 20th October 2014 · 1 min read
