Global Markets Update Is the lower oil price a threat to US Treasuries? It is sometimes argued that a lower oil price is a threat to Treasuries because oil exporters typically save a larger share of their income than oil importers and are more inclined to put their... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q3) Despite the fall in oil prices and the weakness of the economy, South Africa’s current account deficit remained large in Q3. If lower oil prices are maintained, as we expect, then the deficit should... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack US Treasury yields set to rise as Fed tightens The yield of 10-year US Treasuries has fallen further over the past month. But we expect it to rise as the Fed tightens policy. Admittedly, during the last major tightening cycle in 2004-2006, it... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Lower oil prices to benefit US consumers the most The collapse in global oil prices since June should directly benefit consumers in advanced economies by more than $200bn a year, or around 0.8% of their overall consumption. But the gains will be... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly How much will Asia benefit from falling oil prices? Most of Emerging Asia stands to benefit from lower oil prices, and in a couple of economies, Korea and Taiwan, we think the impact will be large enough to warrant an increase in our growth forecasts... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Lower energy prices likely to rattle policymakers In terms of the boost to corporate and household spending power, Japan should be among the big winners from the fall in global energy prices. However, for policymakers, the resulting drag on inflation... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Copper demand should benefit from lower oil prices The slump in oil prices has been the catalyst for falls in other commodities, including copper. We think this ignores the very different fundamentals of the two commodities. Moreover, by boosting... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Falling oil prices open the door to rate cuts in Mexico Mexico’s growth story has lost some of its shine in recent weeks. We still expect GDP growth to accelerate in 2015. But the recent fall in oil prices, coupled with the fact that fiscal policy is... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How the fall in oil prices will benefit Turkey Comments from Turkey’s Finance Minister, Mehmet Simsek, that the sharp fall in oil prices will remove the economy’s status as one of the most fragile in the emerging world have some basis. The current... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
India Economics Update How much does India stand to benefit from falling oil prices? India is one of the world’s largest net importers of oil, but the sharp fall in global oil prices is unlikely toboost the economy by as much as might be expected. Retail prices haven’t fallen by much... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will Venezuela’s oil problems spill over? Would a sovereign default in Venezuela, which now seems increasingly likely given the plunge in the price of oil, cause upheaval in the global financial markets? We suspect not, even though a... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Lower oil prices to tip euro-zone into deflation The recent further falls in global oil prices look set to push euro-zone consumer price inflation - already very low at just 0.3% in November - below zero in the early months of 2015. Provided that... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Slump in oil price will provide a net boost to US economy The US is still a large net importer of crude oil, so the recent collapse in oil prices will provide a net boost to real economic growth of about $150bn or 0.8% of GDP. 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update More winners than losers from further slump in oil prices The latest slump in the oil price has wreaked havoc on some emerging economies and has taken a toll on the share prices of energy firms. Nonetheless, cheaper oil is still a net positive for global GDP... 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Fall in oil prices to wipe out Gulf’s current account surplus The recent fall in oil prices, if sustained, will effectively wipe out the Gulf’s current account surplus. This shouldn’t pose too many problems for these economies. Even if oil prices fall further... 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update What low oil prices mean for sub-Saharan Africa Dramatic falls in oil prices have already taken a heavy toll on Nigeria, where the central bank was forced to devalue the naira and raise interest rates to slow the currency’s decline. As we show in... 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
