Global Economics Update Lower oil prices to have bigger implications for ECB than Fed The recent drop in oil prices is widely assumed to have strengthened the case for monetary policy remaining looser for longer. However, while we think it may encourage the ECB to loosen monetary... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Oil price falls sharper than even we expected We think that the recent sharp falls in oil prices have more to do with increased production than a collapse in global demand. As such prices may rebound a little this year, as the worst fears about... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Market moves leave Fed with a tricky balancing act The recent market moves could help the Fed to hit the employment part of its dual mandate but will take it further away from its inflation target. While we don’t think this necessarily means that a... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Further interest rate cuts still likely in Chile Interest rates in Chile were cut by 25bp to 3.00% last night and, although the accompanying statement suggests that we may be nearing the end of the easing cycle, we expect further cuts over the next... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Assessing the impact of lower oil prices on Latin America The biggest loser from the drop in oil prices within Latin America will be Venezuela and, although the government may make its debt servicing obligations this month, a default seems more likely than... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lower oil prices not a major headache for the Gulf The ongoing slide in oil prices doesn’t pose too much of a threat to the Gulf economies. But it does reinforce the point that a key driver of the region’s economies over the past decade is weakening... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The winners and losers from lower oil prices In simple terms, the big winners from the recent drop in oil prices will be those EMs with large energy import bills, while the big losers will be the major oil exporters. But in reality the situation... 15th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What impact will lower oil prices have on Norway’s property markets? With oil prices having fallen and costs continuing to rise, firms in the sector have cut back their investment plans. Whilst this will reduce economic growth more broadly, we expect the greatest... 15th October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Inflation still likely to moderate despite recent yen weakness The impact of the recent weakening of the yen on consumer prices will be dampened by lower crude oil prices. The upshot is that CPI inflation is still likely to moderate towards year-end rather than... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Rising Indian demand not enough to boost coal prices Slower economic growth in China and the EU, combined with active efforts by these regions and the US to move away from coal power, have caused coal prices to slump dramatically over the last few... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Drop in yields and oil price trump higher dollar We expect the boost from lower long-term interest rates to outweigh any negative impact on economic growth from the stronger dollar. The 10-year yield started the year at 3.0%, but most recently has... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi budget deficits not a disaster, but spending growth to slow Saudi Arabia’s fiscal position looks set to swing from surplus to deficit in the near-future. This would by no means be a disaster as the authorities could easily finance budget shortfalls for many... 9th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack US dollar strength weighs on commodities Almost all commodity prices fell in September, largely in response to the strength of the US dollar and, in many cases, a strong supply outlook. Signs of slower Chinese and euro-zone economic growth... 1st October 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack South Africa comes back into the firing line The South African rand has come under pressure this month as renewed attention on monetary tightening in the US has put the country’s large current account deficit back into the spotlight. The latest... 29th September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Cheaper oil a net positive for global growth Rather than being a sign that global growth is faltering, the recent decline in international oil prices mainly reflects improving supply conditions. As such, it should provide a modest boost to... 29th September 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Which countries stand to gain most from lower oil prices? Lower oil prices should provide a boost to the economies of Emerging Asia. However, some countries are likely to benefit more than others. Indonesia and Thailand stand to gain the most, while Malaysia... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
