Commodities Update Would the release of US strategic oil reserves be a game changer? The sale of crude oil from the US’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve is not as unusual as some of the media headlines suggest, and the small test release, announced yesterday, is unlikely to have a... 13th March 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Pick-up in Saudi economy driven by the oil sector Our GDP Tracker suggests that growth in the Saudi Arabian economy picked up at the start of this year. But the rebound has been driven by the oil sector, while the non-oil sector continues to struggle... 10th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus What the crisis in Ukraine could mean for the rest of the world The crisis in Ukraine still has the potential to have a significant and prolonged impact on the global economy and financial markets, even though our current judgement is that the fallout is likely to... 7th March 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What does the Ukraine crisis mean for energy prices? A further escalation of the crisis in Ukraine could return the price of a barrel of Brent to the highs of around $125 seen in the early days of the “Arab Spring”. However, we would expect any such... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Unseasonal weather lifts prices Adverse weather played a major role in the upward price movements of both energy and agricultural commodities in February. Harsh winter conditions in the US boosted energy prices while concerns about... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodities look to stronger GDP growth for comfort Commodity prices initially appeared to have shrugged off the recent sell-off in emerging market (EM) assets, perhaps focussing on the fact that Fed tapering depends on a continued pick-up in economic... 4th February 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack A shaky start to 2014 Commodities prices started 2014 on a subdued note as high stocks in the US depressed crude oil while poor manufacturing PMI data from China raised concerns about wider commodity demand. Prices... 3rd February 2014 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Energy efficiency gains to constrain EM demand It is often taken as given that oil demand in the developing world will increase exponentially, driven by buoyant economic activity, leading to ever higher oil prices. However, there is huge scope for... 30th January 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Risks (mostly) still on the downside Commodities will not of course underperform other assets for ever, especially with end-user demand supported by a strengthening global economy. In comparison, valuations in equity and bond markets are... 20th January 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Iran deal underlines downside risks for global oil prices Confirmation that the interim nuclear deal between the major Western powers and Iran will come into force on 20th January is not in itself a game-changer for oil markets. Indeed, in the near-term... 13th January 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Why Iran talks have not (yet) led to much lower oil prices The progress being made in defusing tensions over Iran’s nuclear programme has failed to have a marked impact on global oil prices. In part this is because of renewed disruption elsewhere in the... 9th January 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Investors glad to put 2013 behind them The end of 2013 marked another year of dismal returns for commodity investors. The prospects for supply have been the key driver of most commodity prices, especially for agriculturals. The main... 8th January 2014 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Turkish lira comes under fire A high-level corruption scandal has taken its toll on Turkey’s financial markets over the past month. The stock market has been the second worst performer among those of the emerging economies that we... 3rd January 2014 · 1 min read
Energy Watch How much control does OPEC still have over oil prices? The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has of course had a significant influence on oil prices since its creation in 1960. However, a combination of internal division and growing... 13th December 2013 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brent - WTI spread to narrow as both prices fall back The widening of the spreads between the prices of Brent and US benchmark crudes should reverse over the next year as new pipelines ease the logistical constraints that have contributed to the glut of... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Rebound in oil sector supports Saudi Q3 GDP growth Saudi Arabian Q3 GDP data showed that growth picked up as a rebound in the oil sector more than offset a slowdown in the rest of the economy. Looking ahead, growth may accelerate over the coming... 4th December 2013 · 1 min read
