Commodities Update China’s oil imports up strongly in April China’s commodity imports, with the exception of oil, remained relatively subdued in April. However, we expect import growth to pick up in tandem with higher government spending on infrastructure. 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil prices will struggle to rally further The recent bounce back in oil prices has prompted speculation about whether they are about to return to the $100 per barrel levels of the last few years. However, there are some major headwinds, both... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the rebound in oil prices a threat to the global recovery? Oil prices have recovered to levels that should still provide a major boost to consumers, while easing the pressure on producers. However, further increases could undermine the recovery in weaker... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Consumers yet to spend their oil windfall... GDP growth was faster in the euro-zone than in the US in Q1, but we don’t expect this to be the start of a new trend. The single currency area has received a temporary boost from the fall in the euro... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Policy unchanged in Norway, but rate cut still on the cards The Norges Bank left its policy rate unchanged at 1.25% today, but we suspect that a weakening labour market and faltering economic growth will prompt a rate cut at its next meeting in June. 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: why oil prices have provided little support for shilling Lower oil prices should have reduced Kenya’s wide trade deficit and taken some of the pressure off the struggling Kenyan shilling, but the currency was Sub-Saharan Africa’s worst-performing last month... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Today’s data provide the best evidence yet that US oil stocks are at least levelling out and maybe about to start to trend lower. What’s more, the data also showed a further increase in demand and... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Euro-zone outperformance will be short-lived The euro-zone economy looks likely to have outgrown both those of the US and UK in the first quarter of the year, for the first time since Q1 2011. But the outperformance looks set to be short-lived... 6th May 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Industrial commodities lead the pack Some weakness in the US dollar and hope for a delay to the first US interest rate hike helped to support commodity prices in April. Meanwhile, although Chinese economic data showed persistent weakness... 1st May 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Non-OPEC & non-US oil production holding up, for now Oil production outside the US and OPEC has been barely affected by the dramatic slump in prices over the last year. However, the effects of lower oil prices are likely to make themselves felt... 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Today’s data provide more evidence that the growth in US oil stocks is starting to slow, although it will still be some time before stocks actually fall. 29th April 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Turning the corner The (largely positive) views set out in our first quarterly of 2015 have mostly been proved right. We continue to believe that this will be a year of recovery for commodity prices as a whole... 28th April 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update US rig count continues to drop Another large fall in the US active rig count last week has disappointed those who had hoped it was stabilising. But they probably won’t have to wait too much longer to see a floor. 28th April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Has the threat of deflation passed already? Signs that price pressures have picked up a bit during the past month or two have prompted some to suggest that the threat of deflation has vanished almost as suddenly as it appeared. We disagree. In... 27th April 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Relative calm unlikely to last In a relatively quiet week, oil prices consolidated their recent gains as the consensus swung round to our view that the lows recorded in Q1 would prove to be the turning point. However, powerful... 24th April 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Return of Iranian oil unlikely to budge Saudi Arabia The recent deal between Iran and the West means that it is now very likely that substantial volumes of oil from Iran will return to the market. (We do note that although a final deal is not guaranteed... 23rd April 2015 · 1 min read
