Energy Update US oil exports muscle in on an already crowded market Even though we do not expect the restrictions on US crude oil exports to be lifted anytime soon, there is still plenty of scope for exports to grow rapidly. 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s oil imports surge in June China’s commodity import volumes were generally strong in June, although copper imports fell to a four-month low. We think government stimulus and infrastructure spending will boost demand for... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Downside risks materialise June was a relatively quiet month for energy markets. However, since the start of July oil prices have tanked as worries about demand, prompted by crisis in Greece and China, and signs of improving... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Ouch! Commodity investors could be forgiven for a huge sigh of relief that this week is over. The combination of the crisis in Greece and – especially – worries about the fallout from the slump in China’s... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What's happening to global imbalances? The fall in oil prices and the appreciation of the US dollar will cause global imbalances to widen over the coming years. China’s surplus could rise up the political agenda once more while the euro... 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Pick-up in food inflation should prove fleeting Inflation is likely to have picked up in June. The knee-jerk response may be to link it to the monsoon, but the rise in headline inflation is due more to the collapse in food prices a year ago... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Greek "no" leads us to revise our forecasts for oil and gold Commodity markets have largely responded in the ways we had anticipated to the growing risks of “Grexit”. Oil prices in particular have fallen, undermined also by the prospects of a deal with Iran and... 6th July 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Jun.) The drop in Saudi Arabia’s ‘whole economy’ PMI to a record low last month suggests that growth has slowed in the second quarter. Elsewhere, after a disappointing start to the year, Egypt’s economy is... 6th July 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi external position deteriorating even before drop in oil prices The plunge in oil prices over the past year has forced Saudi Arabia to dip into its foreign exchange reserves, but one point that is often overlooked is that the Kingdom’s external position had been... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Grains aside, commodities remain in the doldrums The prices of US grains and soybeans jumped in June on weather-related supply fears, but most other commodities are still becalmed – at best. Industrial metals continued to struggle, despite... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US stocks of oil unexpectedly rose last week after eight consecutive weeks of falls. However, stocks of gasoline resumed their downward trend. 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update For how long will low oil prices boost spending growth? The declines in oil prices since last summer might add as much as 1 percentage point to euro-zone consumer spending growth this year. However, unless oil prices fall further, which we do not expect... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Adverse weather boosts agriculturals The prices of many agricultural commodities rose this week as adverse weather, notably in the US but also in Europe, clouded prospects for forthcoming harvests. Meanwhile, the prices of industrial... 26th June 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Lifting of sanctions on Iran is a major downside risk to oil prices The likely easing of sanctions on Iran is one of several downside risks to global oil prices over the remainder of the year. Admittedly, it may not be until 2016 before Iran can meet its side of any... 24th June 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The pace of the fall in crude oil stocks accelerated this week. At the same time, gasoline stocks rose but there were more positive indicators of demand with an upturn in refinery activity and strong... 24th June 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update What does China’s rebalancing mean for energy markets? China’s efforts to rebalance its economy away from investment, manufacturing and exports towards a more consumer-led growth model are likely to have major implications for all types of energy... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
