Commodities Update Investors become more sanguine on China Over the last few weeks, investors have appeared to come round to our long-held view that fears of a hard landing in China were overdone. Energy and metals prices, in particular, benefited from the... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Could there be a deal to freeze oil output without Iran? Russia’s announcement that it supports Iran’s right to increase production probably raises the chance of some sort of deal on freezing output. However, a credible and enforceable deal is far from... 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC production dips in February OPEC production fell in February. However, temporary pipeline outages were the cause of most of the decrease in supply, rather than any concerted effort to cut production. Indeed, it is likely that... 14th March 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Recovery in US natural gas prices likely to be a slow-burner High stocks due to the exceptionally mild winter will prevent US gas prices from recovering much this year, but strong demand growth should set the scene for higher prices further down the line. 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks rose again last week but a sharp drop in inventories of gasoline seems to have captured the market’s attention. 9th March 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Another five years of rejection for coal The draft outline of China’s latest five-year plan spells more bad news for global coal prices as the government focuses on energy efficiency and reducing carbon emissions, while continuing to support... 8th March 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update What’s behind the rebound in oil prices? The rebound in the price of Brent crude to as high as $40 per barrel today is consistent with our end- 2016 and end-2017 forecasts of $45 and $60, respectively, so we would not want to argue with it... 7th March 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Goldilocks eats the bears... Some “just right” US economic data, with activity and inflation neither too hot nor too cold, has boosted the prices of equities and commodities this week. What’s more, the gold price has resumed its... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks jumped by the most in eleven months last week. However, this was mainly driven by a surge in imports which offset a fall in crude production and rise in refinery inputs. Meanwhile... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Higher Japanese coal demand won't stop prices falling The restart of Japan's nuclear power plants is likely to reduce the country's demand for oil and gas while also allowing a rebalancing of the remaining consumption of fossil fuels towards coal... 1st March 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Saudi Arabia not about to change tack on oil policy Recent comments from Saudi Arabia’s veteran Oil Minister Ali al- Naimi have dashed hopes that had been growing in some quarters that the Kingdom was about to shift direction on its oil market policy... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Watch When will the oil market rebalance? A potential agreement between some OPEC members and Russia to freeze oil production at January’s levels, along with fears about slowing economic growth in China and the US, have intensified debate... 25th February 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Fall in oil prices triggers fiscal responses The past month has seen governments in several countries in Latin America announce measures to repair some of the fiscal damage caused by lower commodity prices. The most impressive package came from... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks hit another high last week, but gasoline stocks fell, both partly reflecting reduced refinery activity. 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Prices of industrial commodities may finally be bottoming out Looking past the day-to-day volatility, the prices of many industrial commodities – including oil and base metals – appear to be finding a floor. This is at least consistent with our relatively... 24th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s MPC dodges tightening, Hungary’s flags easing The Turkish central bank’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged despite the worsening inflation outlook underlines the extent to which political pressures seem to be bearing on the MPC. The... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
