Energy Update What next for oil prices? The easing of sanctions on Iran will add to the supply of oil on world markets, but it should not be the game-changer for prices that some imagine. Instead, we think the more important factors will be... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks rose again last week due to a combination of lower refinery inputs and still-high import volumes. 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update US natural gas prices set to recover Persistently low prices mean that we have revised down our end-2015 and end-2016 forecasts for the price of US natural gas. However, we still expect prices to rise substantially over the next few... 7th September 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Some cautionary thoughts on June’s GDP The widely talked about 0.5% m/m gain in June’s GDP doesn’t convince us that the economy is on the path to recovery. Close examination of the data reveals that nearly half of this growth was due to... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack China in the driving seat August proved to be another tough month for energy commodities with oil and coal prices slumping on worries about demand, prompted by the drop in the Chinese equity market. However, a further round of... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Fragile euro-zone recovery needs more ECB support Despite the better tone to the economic data coming out of the euro-zone in recent weeks, we still expect growth to slow in the second half of the year as the twin tailwinds of the lower oil price and... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks rose last week due to a combination of lower refinery inputs and higher imports, which was only partially offset by lower production 2nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Industrial commodities set for strong recovery into year-end The relief rally in Chinese equities prompted by additional policy stimulus has turned global sentiment around, but a sustained recovery in commodity prices will probably require hard evidence that... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Equity sell-off to reverse soon The recent equity market sell-off in Japan, which originated in China, does not reflect a major deterioration in the economic outlook for Japan. In fact, there are signs that Chinese demand for... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US stocks of crude oil fell sharply last week, but stocks of gasoline rose, despite more US refiners being offline for maintenance. 26th August 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus Making sense of the commodity slump Investor sentiment towards commodities has rarely – if ever – been more negative. However, the recent sharp falls in prices can largely be seen as the continuation of trends in place since 2011. The... 26th August 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Structural issues, not oil prices, drag down growth Yesterday’s Nigerian GDP figures showed that the country’s economy slowed even more sharply than weexpected in the second quarter. While low oil prices have battered the economy, the recent figures... 26th August 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf unlikely to be flustered by latest drop in oil prices The drop in oil prices over the past couple of months is unlikely to cause policymakers in the GCC countries to panic. The region’s large reserves mean that most countries are under little immediate... 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update OPEC to resist calls to cut output We think that OPEC will remain steadfast in its policy of maintaining high output, despite the renewed slump in oil prices and the potential return of exports from Iran. 25th August 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update MENA equity markets take a bruising Equity markets across the MENA region have been hit hard over the past month against the backdrop of the general turmoil in global financial markets and a fresh drop in oil prices. 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Plunge in oil prices will force BoJ to step up easing Further falls in crude oil prices are making it even harder for the Bank of Japan to hit its inflation target. Despite some sanguine comments from Prime Minister Abe today, we think these price falls... 24th August 2015 · 1 min read
