Energy Chart Pack Oil prices rebound as US production falters The big news over the last month has been the ongoing rise in oil prices. The price of Brent almost touched $70 per barrel in early May on news that US oil stocks had fallen and despite being volatile... 14th May 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia can afford to ride out a period of low oil prices We think concerns that Saudi Arabia is drawing down its savings to maintain spending in the face of lower oil prices misses the point that these buffers were built up precisely for a time like this... 14th May 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Recovery stalls as Brazil suffers renewed downturn The recovery that appeared to be underway in Latin America at the end of last year has faded in recent months, with several of the region’s economies experiencing renewed downturns. The latest... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A further fall in US weekly oil stocks suggests that April’s highs marked the peak. However, if the drawdown continues at the current rate it will take another year before stocks are back to more... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Rebound in bond yields unlikely to undermine global growth We can all be caught up in the mood of the moment, but talk of a “rout” in bond markets is, at best, premature. Yields are still remarkably low by past standards. While they may rise further, notably... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC oil output continues to rise Last month’s small increase in supply from OPEC just adds to the glut of oil already in the market. Even though the cartel also raised its demand estimates, supply will still be ample. 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Why aren’t consumers spending more? Consumers in advanced economies have so far opted to save, rather than spend, their oil windfall. However, strengthening labour markets, buoyant asset prices, and high consumer confidence all point to... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Why the Gulf’s dollar pegs are here to stay The sharp fall in oil prices since the middle of last year has thrust the Gulf’s dollar pegs under the spotlight but there are plenty of reasons to think that the risk of currency devaluation remains... 12th May 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil prices run ahead of themselves After a strong start to the week, with Brent seemingly heading for $70 per barrel, the recovery in oil prices ran out of steam by Friday. Indeed, the rebound over the last few months could simply... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for US and euro-zone government bonds? While government bonds in the US and the euro-zone have both been rattled by a rebound in the price of oil, we think other factors will start to play a more important role in determining their fate. 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s oil imports up strongly in April China’s commodity imports, with the exception of oil, remained relatively subdued in April. However, we expect import growth to pick up in tandem with higher government spending on infrastructure. 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil prices will struggle to rally further The recent bounce back in oil prices has prompted speculation about whether they are about to return to the $100 per barrel levels of the last few years. However, there are some major headwinds, both... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the rebound in oil prices a threat to the global recovery? Oil prices have recovered to levels that should still provide a major boost to consumers, while easing the pressure on producers. However, further increases could undermine the recovery in weaker... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Consumers yet to spend their oil windfall... GDP growth was faster in the euro-zone than in the US in Q1, but we don’t expect this to be the start of a new trend. The single currency area has received a temporary boost from the fall in the euro... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Policy unchanged in Norway, but rate cut still on the cards The Norges Bank left its policy rate unchanged at 1.25% today, but we suspect that a weakening labour market and faltering economic growth will prompt a rate cut at its next meeting in June. 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: why oil prices have provided little support for shilling Lower oil prices should have reduced Kenya’s wide trade deficit and taken some of the pressure off the struggling Kenyan shilling, but the currency was Sub-Saharan Africa’s worst-performing last month... 7th May 2015 · 1 min read
