US Economics Weekly Why haven’t households spent their gasoline windfall? With the overall economy in good shape, it is only a matter of time before households start to spend more of the cash freed up by the plunge in gasoline prices. Indeed, in recent years households have... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Next CBK Governor to face less pressure to start tightening cycle It looks more likely than not that Dr. Haron Sirima will replace Prof. Njuguna Ndung’u as Governor of the Central Bank of Kenya, and his appointment is likely be welcomed by the markets as a safe pair... 6th March 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update China takes another step away from coal power We expect global demand for coal to be subdued and prices to fall further over the next few years as China continues to turn its back on coal. However, the downside should be limited by growing demand... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf public investment projects to take the hit from low oil prices The Gulf countries should be able to stomach low prices for the next few years at least, but further down the line some form of adjustment is likely to be needed and we think that fiscal policy will... 5th March 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US oil stocks increase by the largest amount in over a decade, but fears about storage capacity constraints seem overdone. 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update What impact would an Iran-US nuclear deal have on oil prices? A deal between Iran and the West which allows for the removal of sanctions on Iranian oil exports is looking more likely. However, as always, the devil is in the detail. The most likely scenario in... 4th March 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities on the way up The price of Brent staged a remarkable rebound early in the month, while the copper price also made up some lost ground, with the result that the GSCI commodities index managed to outperform US... 2nd March 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global easing cycle not over yet There has been a wave of rate cuts across the world since the start of the year. And we expect monetary policy to be loosened further in a number of economies over the coming months. This should help... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Europe able to weather any disruption in Russian gas supplies We do not expect the latest dispute between Russia and Ukraine over natural gas to disrupt the supply to Western Europe. But even if did, the EU should still be able to cope reasonably well as warmer... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Falling energy prices push many EMs into deflation Concerns over deflation have started to resurface across the emerging world. But the latest deceleration in inflation has been driven by last year’s plunge in oil prices. Accordingly, we continue to... 27th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian real hits weakest level in a decade The Brazilian real has tumbled to its weakest level against the dollar since 2005 in recent days. We suspect that this has more to do with deteriorating economic fundamentals and suggestions from... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Is OPEC likely to call an extraordinary meeting? We doubt that there will be an extraordinary meeting of OPEC anytime soon and, even if there is, policy is unlikely to change. The cartel’s current strategy of tolerating price falls to protect market... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Inflation pressures easing across the MENA region The past month has brought further evidence that inflation is slowing across the MENA region. In Saudi Arabia, inflation now stands at its lowest rate in more than eight years, while price pressures... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The latest data show that US oil stocks are climbing at an increasing rate as maintenance work at refineries means that even more oil is funnelled into storage. 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Will US energy exports be a game-changer for global markets? A fast-changing regulatory background is becoming increasingly important to global energy markets. In this Energy Watch, we examine how the recent fall in oil prices has affected the outlook for US... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Time to worry about deflation? Emerging Asia has seen a sharp drop in inflationary pressures over the past few months. Taiwan, Singapore and Thailand are now experiencing deflation, while inflation is 1% y/y or below in Malaysia... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
